On course for 80+ points

[Carl Sagan]

Twenty games in, almost halfway through the season, we've 35 points which would translate to 80.5 over a full campaign. Our all time record is 85. In recent seasons we've hit the buffers at some point in the second half of the season and fallen away, but this team feels as if it's made of sterner stuff. 

We may not be reaching the highs of some recent campaigns, but I don't see us plumbing the depths either. Today against Burton was an example. It might not have been pretty but I read somewhere it was our first league win against them. I'll take that. 

If George Thorne can stay fit we will have a strong second half to the season. We might even end up looking upwards rather than over our shoulders. For me, this was always a transitional season yet the objective view has to be we're securing some amazing results and look stronger than at any time since the heady days of Mac 1. 

It shows the immense value of consistency, a never say die spirit, good organization and a little flair. I would rather play effective football to get promotion than attractive football that falls short. In a short space of time I take my hat off to Rowett who is doing better than expected, and after a slow start. 

[RamNut]

We a re currently on course for the play offs. Therefore we have a 1 in 4 chance of promotion.

the league position is better than i expected and GR deserves credit for that

however it is true that league seems to have dipped in quality.

this side would get absolutely hammered in the prem.

 

[Jourdan]

Results in recent months have given us some good foundations to build on, of that there is no doubt. But that is all we have at the moment.

After all, is the real Derby the Derby we've seen in the past 10 games? Or is the real Derby the team that were producing decidedly bottom half fare earlier in the season?

Let's not forget - things can unravel just as quickly as they came together. Look at Leeds and where they were a few short months ago - in the top two, the new coach being lauded for his impact (by myself included), and the club being featured on the BBC football pages with talk of a sleeping giant revived and a club destined for a serious promotion tussle. Yet now, one or two more disagreeable results and they could find themselves muscled out of the top half!

So, my feeling is one of cautious optimism.

You look at the squad and it's streetwise, it's experienced, it's talented and with almost all the ingredients you need to punch, kick and claw your way out of the division and part of me thinks, anything less than finishing in the top six would be bitterly disappointing.

But then another part of me remembers this is Derby we are talking about and by March we could be in a relegation battle!

So it's all about taking it one game at a time for me. 

[Highgate]

29 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

Twenty games in, almost halfway through the season, we've 35 points which would translate to 80.5 over a full campaign. Our all time record is 85. In recent seasons we've hit the buffers at some point in the second half of the season and fallen away, but this team feels as if it's made of sterner stuff. 

We may not be reaching the highs of some recent campaigns, but I don't see us plumbing the depths either. Today against Burton was an example. It might not have been pretty but I read somewhere it was our first league win against them. I'll take that. 

If George Thorne can stay fit we will have a strong second half to the season. We might even end up looking upwards rather than over our shoulders. For me, this was always a transitional season yet the objective view has to be we're securing some amazing results and look stronger than at any time since the heady days of Mac 1. 

It shows the immense value of consistency, a never say die spirit, good organization and a little flair. I would rather play effective football to get promotion than attractive football that falls short. In a short space of time I take my hat off to Rowett who is doing better than expected, and after a slow start. 

Teams near the top of the table in the first half of the season will tend to regress slightly towards the mean as the season progresses so I'm not sure we'll see 80 points. However hopefully a fit GT playing a big part during the rest of the season will help us reach it and surge past it!

I think we'd all rather play effective football and get promotion than attractive football that falls short, but seeing as 'effective' football is by definition successful, the problem lies in figuring out what style of football that is. It could be that attractive football is effective.

I thought this would be a difficult season for Rowett too, and if he does land us in the play-offs in May i think he will have impressed in his first full season.

[Doodle]

80 points and a play off spot would be a great first season for Rowett, and far better than I expected. I feel a couple of teams will improve and pass us, but I expect at least shef Utd and Cardiff will dip a little too

[RamNut]

3 hours ago, Highgate said:

I think we'd all rather play effective football and get promotion than attractive football that falls short, but seeing as 'effective' football is by definition successful, the problem lies in figuring out what style of football that is. It could be that attractive football is effective.

V burton and v ipswich - both sat deep and a static Derby tried to hit straight long balls over the top into space that did not exist. Furthermore burton played 5 at the back.at times ipswich had 6 at the back. our depleted strikeforce is outnumbered. we an extra body in attack.The way to score is to run at that packed defence, take players on or play through them with 1-2s. That short pass and move, attacking game is what most people would call 'attractive'. Its also 'effective' in that situation. Thats why Russell made the break through. He's the right type of player to make things happen in those circumstances. (So too would bryson or hughes.)

And in those circumstances - when a packed defence sit deep -  hoofball is neither attractive or effective. 

I'd like to see us vary our game. 

4231 with hoofball, and 4141 or 4132 with short pass and moveball. The shortball game is not about passing it around at the ball just to retain possession as some people seem to think. That is a yet another tactic - way of keeping the ball to defend a lead or draw the opposition out. 

By all means play the long ball option away from home when we are pushed back and the space exists to exploit with pace in behind. But when the opponent sits deep, play an extra striker or attacking player and play through them.

Having a plan b is about the ability the play two different ways and at the moment we are overly obsessed with just one method.

Why?

the hoofball option allows you to maintain a defensive set up at all times. So although you give the ball away alot, and concede possession, our team is hard to break down. The shortball / pass and move game means committing players higher up the pitch and leaves us more open to the long ball counter attack.

Gary seems to fear the latter option but just think about whether the opposition are able to hurt us with quick counter attacking football. Burton haven't got the players to do that. Nor have ipswich. Both rely on set pieces.

So go for it.

[CWC1983]

If we can find some consistent home form and make Pride park a horrible place for visitors to play then we stand a chance of playoffs and possibly automatic. 

We've still got Bristol, Cardiff, Sheff Utd and Villa at home. 

There's a part for the fans to play too, be loud, get behind the team and pressure the refs. 

 

[Sith Happens]

Its good to be up there and in the mix. I am still convinced there is much better football to come from this squad and if it happens we could really kick on....Just hope that we can keep going through Jan and Feb when we seem to have a blip most seasons.

[DRBee]

6 hours ago, Highgate said:

 

I think we'd all rather play effective football and get promotion than attractive football that falls short, but seeing as 'effective' football is by definition successful, the problem lies in figuring out what style of football that is.

 

Don't think you speak for 'ALL' as you claim. We can all take some satisfaction from being in the play-off places but our grip on this is still tenuous.

The last time we played 'effective' football and got promotion we found it wasn't sustainable, crashed and had a horrible few seasons. We give possession away so easily at the moment will we be able to even sustain a promotion bid this season. The next home match will be a good test.

[Inglorius]

Overly simplistic to extrapolate where we are now to our final league position. I've not seen a lot of evidence performance wise to justify that hypothesis. Quick question - what are we actually transitioning to?

[Sith Happens]

Just now, Inglorius said:

Overly simplistic to extrapolate where we are now to our final league position. I've not seen a lot of evidence performance wise to justify that hypothesis. Quick question - what are we actually transitioning to?

True, but you could argue considering our start to the season that we are actually on for more points than our current position demonstrates.

 

[Inglorius]

9 minutes ago, Paul71 said:

True, but you could argue considering our start to the season that we are actually on for more points than our current position demonstrates.

 

It's like saying you can draw a straight line using 2 plotted points you can't; you need at least 3 points to verify that one or both of the first 2 data points weren't spurious. 

[Dimmu]

1 hour ago, Inglorius said:

Overly simplistic to extrapolate where we are now to our final league position. I've not seen a lot of evidence performance wise to justify that hypothesis. Quick question - what are we actually transitioning to?

To percentage football with a twist of hoof and chase.

We still have few proper footballers left, but I can imagine Rowett getting rid of Thorne and Martin before next season starts.

[uttoxram75]

4 hours ago, RamNut said:

V burton and v ipswich - both sat deep and a static Derby tried to hit straight long balls over the top into space that did not exist. Furthermore burton played 5 at the back.at times ipswich had 6 at the back. our depleted strikeforce is outnumbered. we an extra body in attack.The way to score is to run at that packed defence, take players on or play through them with 1-2s. That short pass and move, attacking game is what most people would call 'attractive'. Its also 'effective' in that situation. Thats why Russell made the break through. He's the right type of player to make things happen in those circumstances. (So too would bryson or hughes.)

And in those circumstances - when a packed defence sit deep -  hoofball is neither attractive or effective. 

I'd like to see us vary our game. 

4231 with hoofball, and 4141 or 4132 with short pass and moveball. The shortball game is not about passing it around at the ball just to retain possession as some people seem to think. That is a yet another tactic - way of keeping the ball to defend a lead or draw the opposition out. 

By all means play the long ball option away from home when we are pushed back and the space exists to exploit with pace in behind. But when the opponent sits deep, play an extra striker or attacking player and play through them.

Having a plan b is about the ability the play two different ways and at the moment we are overly obsessed with just one method.

Why?

the hoofball option allows you to maintain a defensive set up at all times. So although you give the ball away alot, and concede possession, our team is hard to break down. The shortball / pass and move game means committing players higher up the pitch and leaves us more open to the long ball counter attack.

Gary seems to fear the latter option but just think about whether the opposition are able to hurt us with quick counter attacking football. Burton haven't got the players to do that. Nor have ipswich. Both rely on set pieces.

So go for it.

In both games (Ipswich and Burton), we created far more chances than we did at Middlesbrough. While it wasn't always fluent, the only reason we didn't win both games fairly easily was down to poor finishing.

[Parsnip]

10 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

In recent seasons we've hit the buffers at some point in the second half of the season and fallen away, but this team feels as if it's made of sterner stuff. 

Dear lord!!! What are you playing at?? RETRACT! RETRACT!

[RamNut]

5 minutes ago, uttoxram75 said:

In both games (Ipswich and Burton), we created far more chances than we did at Middlesbrough. While it wasn't always fluent, the only reason we didn't win both games fairly easily was down to poor finishing.

The original question is still valid.

Why play two holding midfielders, and a single striker.

 

[Whoneedshuls]

Dec/Jan will be the key months playing some good sides including 3 of the current top six and Ipswich away who are right behind us if we remain unbeaten or loose the odd one during the 2 months we'll be right in the mix.

[uttoxram75]

5 minutes ago, RamNut said:

The original question is still valid.

Why play two holding midfielders, and a single striker.

 

I absolutely agree mate. Both games were crying out for a Hendrick or Hughes, or even a Bryson running from deep, anything to try and draw defenders out of position. My only point was to say GR's formation is working in terms of chances created. 4-1 v Ipswich and 3-0 v Burton would have been about raite based on the open goals we missed.

[Carl Sagan]

1 hour ago, Parsnip said:

Dear lord!!! What are you playing at?? RETRACT! RETRACT!

So stern they can even handle that!

[Highgate]

5 hours ago, DRBee said:

Don't think you speak for 'ALL' as you claim. We can all take some satisfaction from being in the play-off places but our grip on this is still tenuous.

The last time we played 'effective' football and got promotion we found it wasn't sustainable, crashed and had a horrible few seasons. We give possession away so easily at the moment will we be able to even sustain a promotion bid this season. The next home match will be a good test.

Fair enough, trying to speak for 'all' is invariably a mistake, no doubt.

But to clarify my point, what I meant was attractive football can be effective too and it's not just 'ugly', practical and conservative football that should be considered effective.

Finding the best system for your group of players is a difficult task for a manager, but I think it's fair to say that no Derby fan (sorry, almost no Derby fan!) would like us to pursue a style of football that would see us fall short every season, whatever style that may be.

Personally I would have much preferred Derby to have tried to keep Hughes, and let he and Thorne lead us to promotion with style and class. But Rowett has decided on trying a different route to the Premier League. Let's hope he succeeds.