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Derby County, a club in decline


Palimpsest

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Today we have witnessed what I fear will be the tone of the season. Derby County are a club in a decline of their own making. We have sold our best attacking players and failed to replace them. That's what a club in decline does. Unless we do miraculously replace them before August 31, we look sure to lack attacking potency this season. Part of the problem seems to be that the club and its fans overrate its players. I was pleased when we got rid of Martin, putting faith in Pearson that he was making a tough but necessary decision to remove a popular player who was too reliant on a specific style of play. Now fans are rejoicing over having him back, despite him showing little reason for us to believe in him for some time before he left and since he's returned. We signed Tom Huddlestone, another player I was delighted to offload when we did - a vastly overrated midfielder who punched above his weight for a while and now looks the same frustrating, clumsy passenger I watched 10 years ago. The fans, ignoring this, instead hear the name Huddlestone and assume we have signed an accomplished, classy Premier League midfielder. We haven't. The fan's 'feelings' about his ability make no difference on the pitch.

Our more expectant fans, rightfully angry over the last couple of seasons, have called for the squad to ripped up and replaced. They didn't mean selling our best players and signing a bog standard midfielder and centre back. The "stay positive" fans will say anything to justify the actions of the club - this post will be criticized for "moaning after two games" and "not giving the lads a chance". I understand the reasoning, but there is a difference between giving the lads a chance, and seeing when the writing is on the wall. If we were crap last season (barring the Mac spell), how can we expect to do better this season after knowingly making the squad worse? The apologetic rhetoric of half of our fans is actually damaging - but they can't see that. There's a difference between saying "booing doesn't help" and criticizing dissenters for calling for change at the club, no matter how drab things get.

One theory I was mulling over while watching that drivel today is that Gary Rowett fits Mel's mold for a manager because he's a corporate yes man. Rowett has done well at previous clubs, but I'm to be convinced that he's a man who can handle the scope of this job. The recent Guardian article exposed him as a man of "buzzwords" and safe opinions, and he doesn't seem like someone who will offend Mel's ego too much, or offend our sensitive little manboy players. We all know what happened with Pearson. We wanted someone to rip up the squad, and he obliged (while he had the chance). We were playing dreadful football, but change was happening. The players didn't like it, but we didn't want them to like it. No one can say with any confidence where we would be now if we had allowed him to continue his project. We instead chose to rip and replace the management team several times, a disaster driven by Mel's ego and the kneejerk atmosphere at the club. Pearson was at least trying to build a team of attacking potency - Rowett does not seem to be doing that. I strongly believe that the current attacking options we have are not good enough to score the goals required to do well in this division, but I don't see an effort from the club to rectify that situation. Johnny Russell is still starting.

Derby are a club declining into mid-table Championship mediocrity. Rowett is the perfect mid-table manager for that scenario. Pearson was a winner. His arrival presented us with a great opportunity. He was trying to turn us into a team of winners, and he didn't care if you got offended along the way. I don't sense that with Rowett. McClaren wasn't given enough time in his second spell. Now we're stuck with an average manager and an average team, and any momentum and belief the squad had is gone. Our best players knew it, and they bailed on us. Well-reasoned fans know it. Rowett probably will struggle, and soon fans will be calling for his head. Then he will go. It's the same predictable, miserable cycle. I don't know if it's a case of finding the right man, or if we're doomed until Mel is removed from the equation. Until we figure it out, Derby County are a club in decline. I'm not calling for Rowett's head - that would be pointless.

We've made our bed, we have to sleep in it. Expectation is down, and Rowett is right in saying that we can't just expect to be up there because we're Derby. He's managing our expectations because he can see how average our squad is. In a way, he's the new Nigel Clough. We have to hope he'll stabilize things, bring the right kind of players in, and build a squad of honest but unremarkable players. If he achieves that, we might get to the point where we can have another go at it with a 'winner' manager and bring some talent in. For now though, we're likely going to have to put up with a lot of grim, boring football and many more losses of this nature. As a football fan, there's always something in the back of your mind that tells you you might be wrong, giving you hope. Right now, that feeling for me is very faint. I feel I can almost see the season in front of me through a crystal ball, and it ain't pretty.

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We were certainly outclassed today. This division is a beast and gets stronger every year. I agree with a lot of Palimpsests' post and have been saying for a long time that Chris Martin is not the striker to get us out of the division. He's a good striker, but often looks very isolated and as we all know looks for a free kick more often than not. Wolves look a very good side and we certainly won't be playing a team that good every week. But they really made us look slow and cumbersome at times. I'm not convinced that Huddlestone is the midfielder needed in this division where players get very little time on the ball. Thorne maybe the answer to help him in a 4-2-3-1 formation. With a pacy striker upfront. Vydra maybe, and a couple of very quick wingers. I love the energy that Russell and Weimann bring to the team, but industry is not good enough on its own. We desperately need to replace Ince with a creative winger. And we are probably missing a truly creative, industrious midfielder. So for my money for Derby to do well this season. Thorne needs to get fit. And we need to make at least two very good purchases in the next 2 weeks. If not... I fear a long season ahead Rams fans!!

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41 minutes ago, Palimpsest said:

Today we have witnessed what I fear will be the tone of the season. Derby County are a club in a decline of their own making. We have sold our best attacking players and failed to replace them. That's what a club in decline does. Unless we do miraculously replace them before August 31, we look sure to lack attacking potency this season. Part of the problem seems to be that the club and its fans overrate its players. I was pleased when we got rid of Martin, putting faith in Pearson that he was making a tough but necessary decision to remove a popular player who was too reliant on a specific style of play. Now fans are rejoicing over having him back, despite him showing little reason for us to believe in him for some time before he left and since he's returned. We signed Tom Huddlestone, another player I was delighted to offload when we did - a vastly overrated midfielder who punched above his weight for a while and now looks the same frustrating, clumsy passenger I watched 10 years ago. The fans, ignoring this, instead hear the name Huddlestone and assume we have signed an accomplished, classy Premier League midfielder. We haven't. The fan's 'feelings' about his ability make no difference on the pitch.

Our more expectant fans, rightfully angry over the last couple of seasons, have called for the squad to ripped up and replaced. They didn't mean selling our best players and signing a bog standard midfielder and centre back. The "stay positive" fans will say anything to justify the actions of the club - this post will be criticized for "moaning after two games" and "not giving the lads a chance". I understand the reasoning, but there is a difference between giving the lads a chance, and seeing when the writing is on the wall. If we were crap last season (barring the Mac spell), how can we expect to do better this season after knowingly making the squad worse? The apologetic rhetoric of half of our fans is actually damaging - but they can't see that. There's a difference between saying "booing doesn't help" and criticizing dissenters for calling for change at the club, no matter how drab things get.

One theory I was mulling over while watching that drivel today is that Gary Rowett fits Mel's mold for a manager because he's a corporate yes man. Rowett has done well at previous clubs, but I'm to be convinced that he's a man who can handle the scope of this job. The recent Guardian article exposed him as a man of "buzzwords" and safe opinions, and he doesn't seem like someone who will offend Mel's ego too much, or offend our sensitive little manboy players. We all know what happened with Pearson. We wanted someone to rip up the squad, and he obliged (while he had the chance). We were playing dreadful football, but change was happening. The players didn't like it, but we didn't want them to like it. No one can say with any confidence where we would be now if we had allowed him to continue his project. We instead chose to rip and replace the management team several times, a disaster driven by Mel's ego and the kneejerk atmosphere at the club. Pearson was at least trying to build a team of attacking potency - Rowett does not seem to be doing that. I strongly believe that the current attacking options we have are not good enough to score the goals required to do well in this division, but I don't see an effort from the club to rectify that situation. Johnny Russell is still starting.

Derby are a club declining into mid-table Championship mediocrity. Rowett is the perfect mid-table manager for that scenario. Pearson was a winner. His arrival presented us with a great opportunity. He was trying to turn us into a team of winners, and he didn't care if you got offended along the way. I don't sense that with Rowett. McClaren wasn't given enough time in his second spell. Now we're stuck with an average manager and an average team, and any momentum and belief the squad had is gone. Our best players knew it, and they bailed on us. Well-reasoned fans know it. Rowett probably will struggle, and soon fans will be calling for his head. Then he will go. It's the same predictable, miserable cycle. I don't know if it's a case of finding the right man, or if we're doomed until Mel is removed from the equation. Until we figure it out, Derby County are a club in decline. I'm not calling for Rowett's head - that would be pointless.

We've made our bed, we have to sleep in it. Expectation is down, and Rowett is right in saying that we can't just expect to be up there because we're Derby. He's managing our expectations because he can see how average our squad is. In a way, he's the new Nigel Clough. We have to hope he'll stabilize things, bring the right kind of players in, and build a squad of honest but unremarkable players. If he achieves that, we might get to the point where we can have another go at it with a 'winner' manager and bring some talent in. For now though, we're likely going to have to put up with a lot of grim, boring football and many more losses of this nature. As a football fan, there's always something in the back of your mind that tells you you might be wrong, giving you hope. Right now, that feeling for me is very faint. I feel I can almost see the season in front of me through a crystal ball, and it ain't pretty.

That is an excellent summary of our current situation. The defeat today is more than just a bump in the road. It illustrated perfectly our decline as serious promotion contenders. Wolves were excellent today, but there are a number of better teams than them in this division who will do the same to us. We had no answer to their quality today and with the current squad I don't see that changing.

Rowett is an honest guy but he will not take us anywhere - his brand of football is not the kind that gets teams promoted at this level. You can have as many grafters as you want, but if like us you have a midfield that has no creative spark in it whatsoever, and no players with that bit of extra quality to change games you are doomed to spend the next couple of years drifting around in mid-table.

The attendance was poor today, certainly down on the last few seasons and I think that is probably a reflection of peoples disillusionment with things already as much other factors such as people still on holiday etc. The clubs transfer business this summer has been lacklustre after promises of quality replacements for those we sold, and our pursuit of certain targets has seemed a bit desparate at times, with a sense that the manager has been working his way down a list as each bid is rejected.

I am reconciled to the fact that as things stand we are just going to tread water and be on the outside looking in at this seasons promotion race. If we somehow manage to force our way in to the party then great, but without getting some real quality in before the transfer window shuts I really can't see it happening.

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I hear you...and much of what you say makes sense...but, at the end of it all. you've spent a fair bit of energy to end up right back where you started IMHO.

Rowett may, or may not, be the right man for this job but only time will tell. You're more than a little harsh on Rowett but I respect the fact that you're honest enough with yourself to say (more or less) that it's a sense or a fear. That's fine; after the manager-go-round we've had under Mel, you're more than justified to wonder if Mel wants only "Little Mels" around the club.

I won't deny that I've had similar feelings/moments wondering. I expressed concern about Clement's inexperience - albeit dressed up as "hope we have the necessary support in place and accept that he'll learn on the job" - but concluded, no matter what, we have to give him sufficient time to make a go of it or demonstrate incontestably that he'd failed. We did neither. We panicked. I supported Pearson as the architect of Leicester and an undeniably strong manager - hoping that it reflected an implicit acknowledgement that Mel had erred in sacking McClaren and replacing him with a novice likely to be more malleable - but warned that the playing group weren't suited to the Pearson model and that there might need to be a major step backwards to enable the club to go forward.Pearson needed time and trust. As it happened, it was worse than I feared; the squad rebelled; we panicked; and Pearson was given neither.

Then McClaren II.

I was delighted - he was, and still is, my preferred manager of Derby - but I didn't buy the love-in; for a start, insisting McClaren apologise "to the fans" for leaving seemed churlish (and childish, just as trying to withhold his payout after being sacked the first time had been). I said at the time that I doubted Mel would extend McClaren beyond the end of the season; what I didn't say at the time was that my intuition told me that Mel had always wanted Rowett - as a Derby man, more likely to share his vision of making Derby great again - and was waiting for him to be available, Birmingham obliged but McClaren was doing too well then to move. Form slumped and McClaren's sacked with a snide and cowardly "good riddance" as he departed, suggesting that my fears might've a damn sight closer to the truth than I'd hoped. McClaren was never going to be given the time.

So, to Rowett. None of that is Rowett's fault. I'd preferred Pearson to Rowett a season ago because (a) Pearson's record was superior; and (b) football is littered with managers who do well at poorer clubs by getting them to punch above their weight, but who fail miserably when they have resources at their disposal. It concerned me when Rowett was appointed and I said so...BUT...Rowett needs to be given time.

NO. MATTER. WHAT.

Most fans agreed that the previous squad's time had passed. That squad needed serious deconstructing before a rebuilding could commence. In that sense, Rowett's remit is much the same as Nigel Clough's with one major difference.

The endgame.

Clough had to reduce the wage bill to a new mid-Championship level at best; one suspects that Rowett has to reduce it to the top Championship tier, ie below clubs with parachute payments but well above the mid-table level. The essential challenge is the same though: much of the squad is overpaid and signed to long-term contracts with options to trigger extensions in their favour.

As with post-2007-8, deconstructing the squad requires a willing third party, a willing player and an acceptance that Derby will need to take a bath.

The only question is whether we'll drown in three inches of water like Whitney Houston, or suffer pneumonia from prolonging it...or find a way to make it as clean and structured as possible. Until it's done, we're beholden to the performance of a squad which knows the club has mentally moved on.

That's always a bad position for a club to be in. Clubs have been relegated in those circumstances. We very nearly were in 2008-9 and may well have been on track to do so last season when Pearson did his "bull in a china shop" impersonation. Pearson's way may have been a bloodbath but it undoubtedly would've completed the deconstruction phase more quickly.

We knew this was Rowett's challenge. Ince and Hughes left because Premier League clubs wanted them and the players wanted the opportunity. Full stop. The alternative - holding them to their contracts - would've been disastrous.

Regardless of how well we end up performing this season, it'll still be a holding season as the club turns over the old squad and brings in a new Rowett squad.

Only then can Rowett be judged on his merits.

It sounds like you, unlike some of our fans, understand this quite well. It just sticks in your gut to watch it. It is galling to see that, on first glance, it looks like yet another club has lapped us.

It may well be true. It probably is.

But we are where we are and it's not Rowett's fault. It's his job to extricate us from this position as quickly as possible. Hopefully he is up to it.

One thing is for certain as far I am concerned: he is the man for the job. He must be given the time to succeed or fail.

Why? Because he is in the job and he has no chance of succeeding if the club panics preemptively. AGAIN.

Keep the faith mate. We're Derby. It's all we CAN do.

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Decline, or rationalization after we failed in the big gambles?

It doesn't make the current situation better, but settling in for a few seasons of mediocrity as we get things back on a more reasonable footing is about all we can do.

I view Rowett as the new Nigel Clough basically, a bit more hope and ambition, but essentially similar, we need to do just enough whilst evolving the squad back into a genuine contender.

I dont disagree with the OP in a lot of things, but I think in context, the trough we're heading down will lead to a new crest in time.

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1 minute ago, RadioactiveWaste said:

Decline, or rationalization after we failed in the big gambles?

It doesn't make the current situation better, but settling in for a few seasons of mediocrity as we get things back on a more reasonable footing is about all we can do.

I view Rowett as the new Nigel Clough basically, a bit more hope and ambition, but essentially similar, we need to do just enough whilst evolving the squad back into a genuine contender.

I dont disagree with the OP in a lot of things, but I think in context, the trough we're heading down will lead to a new crest in time.

I could certainly accept that. 

Was just saying in the match day thread that the frustrating thing doesn't come from the defeat. It comes from us having seen this pattern of play with these players already. The boxed in midfield > the retreat > the pressed back 4 > the hoof > the isolation.

Pearson did it. Wassall even dabbled in it. Mac never got round it in his second spell fully. Rowett saw it last season.

Getting beat by a good team today doesn't frustrate as much as watching Derby hand momentum over to the opponent in the same old way. Typically bogged down in poor or slow passing before panicking. 

If we'd been caught out trying something different  (like the promise Rowett showed last season and then ridiculously abandoned) then fair enough. Learning curve. 

But this? This Johnson woeful passing, Butterfield/Bryson sitting in and pointless passing, wingers getting dragged back to help, Martin getting isolated before the inevitable hoof and loss of momentum/confidence. We've seen it many times. 

If we are to be more direct then what Butterfield, Bryson doing?

If we are to pass then where's the adventure? The midfield drive? We all know it's not coming from that 3. 

I'm worried about the transfer strategy too. We've sold 2 key players for a fee that may be fair. But to us it's low because of how dependent we were on them. I don't see how the likes of Lawrence, however talented, will change the cycle of play? Ince certainly couldn't and he is one of the best Championship wingers too. 

I know I'm moaning. I'll shut up as soon as it looks like we may be learning. Even losing 8-0 to Wolves. I'm more bothered that we learned nothing today. Or v Sunderland. Or through the end of last season. A flat pack midfield and a striker on the horizon hoping the wind blows the ball his way.

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9 hours ago, swadieram said:

?????? I've never heard such rubbish in my life.  we will never win anything or go up with Keogh as captain ! 

Funny we signed the captain of Reading in Pearce and the captain of Burnley in Shackell and neither of them of displaced or outlasted Keogh. Under seperate managers too. Strange that. It's almost as if professional football managers and colleagues seem to think he's a decent player, which one would have to assume he is considering he's one of the few internationals in our squad.

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The fault lies firmly at Mel's door. He was a fan before he was the owner and as such is too fickle. Manager's do not get the time to build, or in some cases are clearly the wrong choice. Clement sacked when in a top six position (he will go on to manage a big big club, no doubt about that) Pearson a poor appointment but sacked wrongly during restructure. McLaren II sacked after lifting us from bottom 3 to just outside the top 6. Rowett, not my choice, he'll be gone before Christmas. If Mel wants to continue to own the club, fine, but back off! Appoint a Director of football to act as a voice of reason before wielding the axe! The club will go nowhere with mad Mel so heavily involved.

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