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That second automatic promotion spot...


Parsnip

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We've just beaten the worst two form sides in the league. Let's keep a lid on it.

If we're still around the top of the form table in the new year, I'll start to look at the table. 

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26 minutes ago, needles said:

We've just beaten the worst two form sides in the league. Let's keep a lid on it.

If we're still around the top of the form table in the new year, I'll start to look at the table. 

Balls.

A couple of weeks ago we were the most boring team in the league. Now we're the most exciting. 

It's game on.

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Just to bring a bit of reality to things... I thought I'd check some stats.

On 1st Oct we were 13 points behind 2nd place. Today, 21 Nov we are 12 points behind 2nd place.  Good news is our form is up there with the top 2. Bad news is we need to exceed their form by quite a bit more than 1 point every 7 weeks.

Likilhood is that we'll need Brighton to collapse (possible with Calderwood gone) and continue our fantastic form for the rest of the season. It's a big ask.

Positions 4,5,6 are right there for the taking though.

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All of the top 6 and lower have been inconsistant this season.

Which is why, while any of those sides are out of form they are very beatable.

Geordies and brighton on the other hand..... i can see them being top 2 by quite a margin.

I cant see any club challenging them realistically. But top 6 is definately achievable for us, just cant see us caching the top 2.

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I said at the start of the season that I think Brighton will challenge Newcastle for the title and I stand by that. However, I think we are more than capable of reaching the playoffs and that should be our aim now. Who knows, maybe one of the top two will collapse a la Derby 2014, but I doubt it.

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13 hours ago, ramsbottom said:

People forget, in 95 we were, I think, 4th or 5th bottom when we signed Igor. 

Its not impossible, just improbable. If we get in a couple of loans to cover the long term injuries in Jan we can make a push for it. No point making 6th your target, aim as high as you can and see where it takes you...

Just checked and when Igor signed we were 14th with 18 points from the first 14 games: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/division-one/1995-1996/table/1995-10-29 compared with 23 points from 17 games today.

But the biggest difference compared with back then is that we finished second with 79 points(!!!!) despite our unbeaten run of 20 odd games. Last season 78 points got us 5th place. Over the last few years the table has become stretched and to overhaul either Newcastle or Brighton this year we will need 90+. When we came third in 2014 it was with 85 points which seemed a lot (and is our record for the division) but since then it's been:

  • 2015 3rd = 86 points, 2nd = 89 points
  • 2016 3rd = 89 points, 2nd = 89 points

With Newcastle and Brighton so far ahead, as I said earlier in the thread I think 2nd will likely be at least 91 points this year. Even if we're brilliant from now until the end of the season I don't see we can beat mid-80s. But, as B4 says on here, all we can do is keep picking up 3 points.

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3 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Just checked and when Igor signed we were 14th with 18 points from the first 14 games: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/division-one/1995-1996/table/1995-10-29 compared with 23 points from 17 games today.

But the biggest difference compared with back then is that we finished second with 79 points(!!!!) despite our unbeaten run of 20 odd games. Last season 78 points got us 5th place. Over the last few years the table has become stretched and to overhaul either Newcastle or Brighton this year we will need 90+. When we came third in 2014 it was with 85 points which seemed a lot (and is our record for the division) but since then it's been:

  • 2015 3rd = 86 points, 2nd = 89 points
  • 2016 3rd = 89 points, 2nd = 89 points

With Newcastle and Brighton so far ahead, as I said earlier in the thread I think 2nd will likely be at least 91 points this year. Even if we're brilliant from now until the end of the season I don't see we can beat mid-80s. But, as B4 says on here, all we can do is keep picking up 3 points.

There really hasn't been much of an overall trend in how many points it takes to get 2nd, it bounces around anywhere from the high 70s to low 90s, and whilst we've had a couple in a row with high points totals for 2nd, that on it's own doesn't mean much. 

Beyond that though, we could still do quite well from the season. Maintain around 2 points per game (very good form, around 1st-2nd across a whole season) it could see us to 81 points, and 93 points, the highest value required in the time period above, is still reaching with ~2.4 points per game. It would be an incredible run, but not impossible. 

Right now though my concern would be continuing as we are for the time being and stabilising ourselves in the top half / playoffs battle. No point getting concerned above promotion at this time. 

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2 hours ago, Albert said:

There really hasn't been much of an overall trend in how many points it takes to get 2nd, it bounces around anywhere from the high 70s to low 90s, and whilst we've had a couple in a row with high points totals for 2nd, that on it's own doesn't mean much. 

 

Beyond that though, we could still do quite well from the season. Maintain around 2 points per game (very good form, around 1st-2nd across a whole season) it could see us to 81 points, and 93 points, the highest value required in the time period above, is still reaching with ~2.4 points per game. It would be an incredible run, but not impossible. 

Right now though my concern would be continuing as we are for the time being and stabilising ourselves in the top half / playoffs battle. No point getting concerned above promotion at this time. 

Relegation now is a non starter so For me if I was Steve Mac I would be saying to the squad go out and get me second place ,, go out fight ,battle and express yourselves every game and chase the arse off that second spot ,, you are good enough so go out and get it ,, I think that attitude and approach gives us a slim shot at second but we walk the play off spots

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54 minutes ago, Albert said:

I thought I'd posted this earlier as well, in any case, points that 2nd place won over the years:

Edit: Well, that's not working now. How about a link instead: Points for 2nd over the years

Edit 2: Well, that's not working either, how about a link as text: http://i.imgur.com/TAlRZ5d.png

Think you need to work on your linking up skills Albert ;) 

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10 hours ago, rynny said:

Added it on for you @Albert :thumbsup:

Thanks, any idea what was going wrong? It appeared fine in the editor, just disappeared when I posted it. I tried a number of ways of inserting it, from using "insert other media" to just plonking it straight on in there. Let's try that again for a giggle, every way I can think of:

Nope, as it turns out it just clears any images I post. Odd. 

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