Carl Sagan Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 A third of the way through the season and remarkably there are five teams averaging at least two points a game. Inevitably a significant gap is forming below. Last season a top eight got away and all the promotion and playoff places were clearly going to be between just them, with quite a long way to go. This season, if anyone is going to come from below, they don't just need to overhaul one or two teams playing well, but four. That's probably too tough an ask for the automatic places, which already look as though they'll be from the current top five. Given our start, it's so very impressive that we are in the mix. Had it not be for our incredible run of form, then four teams would be away and we'd be looking at the playoffs. One of the interesting things looking at the results is just how tight all the matches have been. Considering the points totals, it's also unusual that no one has an extravagently high goal difference. Does this mean that "anyone can beat anyone" or is it that in a long season with games coming thick and fast, teams are getting better at "game management" and conserving energy for the challenges ahead, shutting their opposition out and taking their foot off the accelerator. The last two rounds of games have been amazing, winning them both but failing to move up the table. When you're up at the top this really is an exciting league, with so much at stake for the winners. Friday is going to be an interesting challenge. It's our first opportunity to take top spot, albeit temporarily. Are we ready to seize the prize? Last season there seemed several times when we didn't push on when we had the opportunity; this year, you do sense a change. Good time to be a Ram, but it's clear there are three or four other very good teams in the division and this is going to be one very difficult season. Ramble over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRam Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Am I right in my thinking (albeit with no research) that there haven't been many games between the current top 5? I know we played Boro and Burnley during our slow start (and those two draws are looking excellent now - a shame they were both at home) but I'm just curious if overall there have been few head to heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 13 minutes ago, SaintRam said: Am I right in my thinking (albeit with no research) that there haven't been many games between the current top 5? I know we played Boro and Burnley during our slow start (and those two draws are looking excellent now - a shame they were both at home) but I'm just curious if overall there have been few head to heads. Looks like it. statto.com has a table based on results against the top-third of the division, so basically against the top eight teams: http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2015-2016/versus-top-third All of the top five have played only three or four of those games (instead of seven for a full house). Hull play Boro at the weekend so one or both will drop points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal is a Ram Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Of the top 5 playing each other: Hull - Brighton Burnley - Derby Brighton - Hull Boro - Derby Derby - Boro and Burnely Indeed - matches against the top 5 have been few and far between. Middlesbrough play Hull on Saturday, Burnley play Brighton first game back after the international break, and then we play Hull the week after. November might be where we start to see someone take a clear grip on the top 2. I hope its us, if not, at least keep pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van der MoodHoover Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Perfecting the art of not losing away to any of our rivals could be even more important this season. We've already seen Burnley and Boro do that to us so we should reciprocate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irobinson Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 5 minutes ago, HantsRam said: Perfecting the art of not losing away to any of our rivals could be even more important this season. We've already seen Burnley and Boro do that to us so we should reciprocate. exactly right - and we have had some dubious performances away from home to the likes of Burnley and Boro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValeRam Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 1 hour ago, Carl Sagan said: A third of the way through the season and remarkably there are five teams averaging at least two points a game. Inevitably a significant gap is forming below. Last season a top eight got away and all the promotion and playoff places were clearly going to be between just them, with quite a long way to go. This season, if anyone is going to come from below, they don't just need to overhaul one or two teams playing well, but four. That's probably too tough an ask for the automatic places, which already look as though they'll be from the current top five. Given our start, it's so very impressive that we are in the mix. Had it not be for our incredible run of form, then four teams would be away and we'd be looking at the playoffs. One of the interesting things looking at the results is just how tight all the matches have been. Considering the points totals, it's also unusual that no one has an extravagently high goal difference. Does this mean that "anyone can beat anyone" or is it that in a long season with games coming thick and fast, teams are getting better at "game management" and conserving energy for the challenges ahead, shutting their opposition out and taking their foot off the accelerator. The last two rounds of games have been amazing, winning them both but failing to move up the table. When you're up at the top this really is an exciting league, with so much at stake for the winners. Friday is going to be an interesting challenge. It's our first opportunity to take top spot, albeit temporarily. Are we ready to seize the prize? Last season there seemed several times when we didn't push on when we had the opportunity; this year, you do sense a change. Good time to be a Ram, but it's clear there are three or four other very good teams in the division and this is going to be one very difficult season. Ramble over... Its turning out to be a very different league from what I expected At the outset, I thought that almost every club had a chance of reaching the play-offs, except Rotherham. The only thing I got right was that our main rivals to go up would be Boro plus two of the three relegated teams (i.e. excluding QPR who seemed such a shambles and were in need of a massive overhaul). In the event, the majority of teams have been very average. All of the promoted teams from League One have struggled badly, which is pretty unusual. And many teams you might have expected a big push from ( Blackburn, Wolves, Forest, Ipswich, Brentford, Leeds, Fulham) have not been at the races so far. Having said that, its still early days and theres plenty of time for teams to put in a challenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uptherams Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 I don't think we should put the cart before the horse. Anything can happen. Let's concentrate on our own matches. I don't think our side should fear any others in terms of that team might beat us. Just need to grind out the wins as we have done since we lost to Leeds. Keep calm and carry on. Drop 2 points or 3 in a game... so what. Just carry on. No need to panic or change. We can't look to fixtures 5 games down the line and compare their position to others in the table and say oh this team is easier than that team. Just a few wins and losses here and there and the table changes considerably. I think it's daft to look at the table and say Cardiff are harder than Leeds because Cardiff are 9th on 22 points and Leeds 17th on 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted November 4, 2015 Author Share Posted November 4, 2015 A look at the position after 15 games in the previous few seasons: 2014/15 1 Watford 29 pts (finished 2nd) 2 Bournemouth 27 pts (finished 1st) 6 Norwich 26 points (playoff winners) (Rams 5th on 26 points) 2013/14 1 Burnley 34 pts (finished 2nd) 2 Leicester 32 pts (finished 1st) 3 QPR 32 pts (playoff winners - boo) (Rams 10th on 22 pts) 2012/13 1 Crystal Palace 30 pts (playoff winners) 3 Cardiff 28 pts (finished 1st) 4 Hull 28 pts (finished 2nd) (Rams 9th on 23 pts) 2011/12 1 Southampton 33 pts (finished 2nd) 2 West Ham 28 pts (playoff winners) 17 Reading 18 pts (finished 1st!!!!) (Rams 8th on 24 points) 2010/11 1 QPR 33 pts (finished 1st) 3 Swansea 29 pts (playoff winners) 7 Norwich 24 pts (finished 2nd) (Rams 4th on 24 points) So, in each of the last five seasons the team leading at this stage has gone on to promotion and mainly the promoted teams have come from the top group. The exception was Reading's incredible run in 2011/12. Also, we nearly proved an exception in 2013/14, but we all now had that finished at Wembley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuespachRam Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 i like that a week ago we were "only 5 points behind Brighton" and now the 5 point gap to the chasing pack is "significant".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rampage Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 HEAD TO HEAD RESULTS AND FIXTURES (TOP 5) Derby 1 - 1 Boro 05.08 Bri 1 - 0 Hull 12.09 Derby 0 -0 Burn 21.09 ----------------------------- Hull - - - Boro 7.11 Burn - - - Bri 22.11 Hull - - - Derby 27.11 Derby - - - Bri 12.12 Boro - - - Burn 15.12 Bri - - - Boro 19.12 Hull - - - Burn 26.12 Boro - - - Derby 12.01 Burn - - - Derby 23.01 Hull - - - Bri 30.01 Burn - - - Hull 06.02 Boro - - - Hull 19.03 Bri - - -Burn 02.04 Derby- - - Hull 05.04 Burn - - - Boro 19.04 Bri - - - Derby 30.04 Boro - - - Bri 07.05 Twenty fixtures, but only three played. Therefore all to play for. 6 hours ago, Carl Sagan said: A third of the way through the season and remarkably there are five teams averaging at least two points a game. Inevitably a significant gap is forming below. Last season a top eight got away and all the promotion and playoff places were clearly going to be between just them, with quite a long way to go. This season, if anyone is going to come from below, they don't just need to overhaul one or two teams playing well, but four. That's probably too tough an ask for the automatic places, which already look as though they'll be from the current top five. Given our start, it's so very impressive that we are in the mix. Had it not be for our incredible run of form, then four teams would be away and we'd be looking at the playoffs. One of the interesting things looking at the results is just how tight all the matches have been. Considering the points totals, it's also unusual that no one has an extravagently high goal difference. Does this mean that "anyone can beat anyone" or is it that in a long season with games coming thick and fast, teams are getting better at "game management" and conserving energy for the challenges ahead, shutting their opposition out and taking their foot off the accelerator. The last two rounds of games have been amazing, winning them both but failing to move up the table. When you're up at the top this really is an exciting league, with so much at stake for the winners. Friday is going to be an interesting challenge. It's our first opportunity to take top spot, albeit temporarily. Are we ready to seize the prize? Last season there seemed several times when we didn't push on when we had the opportunity; this year, you do sense a change. Good time to be a Ram, but it's clear there are three or four other very good teams in the division and this is going to be one very difficult season. Ramble over... Pretty much totally agree with all your points Carl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sage Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 To paraphrase The Spice Girls, November is when 5 will become 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rampage Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 2 hours ago, Carl Sagan said: A look at the position after 15 games in the previous few seasons: 2014/15 1 Watford 29 pts (finished 2nd) 2 Bournemouth 27 pts (finished 1st) 6 Norwich 26 points (playoff winners) (Rams 5th on 26 points) 2013/14 1 Burnley 34 pts (finished 2nd) 2 Leicester 32 pts (finished 1st) 3 QPR 32 pts (playoff winners - boo) (Rams 10th on 22 pts) 2012/13 1 Crystal Palace 30 pts (playoff winners) 3 Cardiff 28 pts (finished 1st) 4 Hull 28 pts (finished 2nd) (Rams 9th on 23 pts) 2011/12 1 Southampton 33 pts (finished 2nd) 2 West Ham 28 pts (playoff winners) 17 Reading 18 pts (finished 1st!!!!) (Rams 8th on 24 points) 2010/11 1 QPR 33 pts (finished 1st) 3 Swansea 29 pts (playoff winners) 7 Norwich 24 pts (finished 2nd) (Rams 4th on 24 points) So, in each of the last five seasons the team leading at this stage has gone on to promotion and mainly the promoted teams have come from the top group. The exception was Reading's incredible run in 2011/12. Also, we nearly proved an exception in 2013/14, but we all now had that finished at Wembley. No team with 30 points from 15 games in above years failed to get promoted. It will happen this year. The reason is that of 20 head to heads between the top five, only three games have been played.These top five teams have been too good for the teams, 6th and below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Only team I can see joining the five at the top is Reading as they in general play very well, and of the current five I can only envisage Brighton dropping out of the top six. Will be interesting to see how it pans out, but the Championship is becoming awfully predictable. The form of Burnley, Hull and Derby is similar to what you'd expect from United, Arsenal and City in the PL. So many teams near the bottom of the Championship are simply rubbish. They're competitive, but equally rubbish. When you look at Burnley's fixtures and you can't see where their next loss is coming from then you know it's a bloody awful league quality-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CumbrianRam Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 6 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said: Only team I can see joining the five at the top is Reading as they in general play very well, and of the current five I can only envisage Brighton dropping out of the top six. Will be interesting to see how it pans out, but the Championship is becoming awfully predictable. The form of Burnley, Hull and Derby is similar to what you'd expect from United, Arsenal and City in the PL. So many teams near the bottom of the Championship are simply rubbish. They're competitive, but equally rubbish. When you look at Burnley's fixtures and you can't see where their next loss is coming from then you know it's a bloody awful league quality-wise. Yet the myth of anyone can beat anyone is banded around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertRam Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Agree with all above, and think we'll see teams like Sheff Wed, Reading and Birmingham having a say in the eventual outcome, apart from the 6 pointers. Any slip ups are certain to be punished. I still think our main rivals for Auto are Hull Boro Reading and poss Burnley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 2 hours ago, CumbrianRam said: Yet the myth of anyone can beat anyone is banded around.. Is it a myth? we've dropped points to charlton (23), bolton (22), leeds (17) , and blackburn (15) Both charlton and leeds looked pretty decent when we played them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcsilks Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 6 minutes ago, RamNut said: Is it a myth? we've dropped points to charlton (23), bolton (22), leeds (17) , and blackburn (15) Both charlton and leeds looked pretty decent when we played them I agree. The top four at the end of the season will have all likely dropped points to sides in the bottom half dozen or so. It's a competitive league that for the large part, is devoid of quality with teams resorting to set-piece football that is difficult to defend against. Derby were outplayed against Leeds yet they're struggling. The cream is rising to the top but in this league, anybody can beat anybody on their day. It's all about those two teams that can establish a little more consistency than the other 22 teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamNut Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Fortunes can change pretty quickly from boxing day onwards last season we lost only 1 of the next 11 games ( limp performance v forest at home) Pld 11 w8 d2 L1 pts 26 - title-winning form But then....we won only 2 of the final 13 games pld 13 w2 d6 L5 pts 12 - relegation form This season - without johnson and butterfield pld 5 w0 d4 L1 pts 4 - relegation form then.....with johnson and butterfield Pld 10 w8 d2 L0 pts 26 - title winning form again. The margin between success and failure is not alot. Its not just about the results against the top teams. Its also about who loses which players to injury, and who signs who going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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