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The Finance Thread


SillyBilly

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1 minute ago, StivePesley said:

More bothered that my shares tanked from 12k USD to 10k USD over the course of a week before Xmas. ?

 

☹️ 

Just as an aside, if they are small caps, end of year tax selling affects the smaller stocks over the water, very often traders realise gains and rebalance portfolios; just something to consider.

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I ended the Funding Circle experiment just before they floated in the autumn, well at least best I could.

Started with 4k on the 1st December last year, after 3 months the account was showing a total of 4.5k, thought this is pretty good, but the amount has been steadily dwindling ever since.

The wierd thing is, on their dashboard it gives you a gross and net yield, which has remained broadly at 10/7% respectively, yet there was only £50 more in the pot than when I started, I decided such gains were not worth the risk even over a poor interest paying current account, especially as the IPO went so poorly.

Here's the kicker, despite stopping new lending 2 months ago, it was only possible to withdraw £3600, and since then the money available comes in dribs and drabs, to the extent I'm still down on the original investment.

Having had a brief scout of reviews, it seems I'm not alone in waiting a long time to reclaim my investment in installments, even people who've invested a lot more over a longer period of time seem to have to wait around a year to withdraw more than they've earned, which is pretty poor on an investment that supposedly yielded such returns.

Opened a Marcus account instead, boring and low interest, but safe.

Just need to fund it now!

 

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Strangely enough my best investment over the last few years has been a car .Bought it for £24k four years ago ,turned down £48k for it a couple of months ago .In hindsight I think in terms of investment now's the time to let go  but it's my pleasure / hobby,Porsche prices are softening I notice too.

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2 hours ago, King Kevin said:

Strangely enough my best investment over the last few years has been a car .Bought it for £24k four years ago ,turned down £48k for it a couple of months ago .In hindsight I think in terms of investment now's the time to let go  but it's my pleasure / hobby,Porsche prices are softening I notice too.

Bet you’d get get something nice for that money?

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3 hours ago, King Kevin said:

Strangely enough my best investment over the last few years has been a car .Bought it for £24k four years ago ,turned down £48k for it a couple of months ago .In hindsight I think in terms of investment now's the time to let go  but it's my pleasure / hobby,Porsche prices are softening I notice too.

What is it?

interestingly i've done the absolute opposite.

Spent over £30k maintaining and repairing a car that is probably worth £500.

 

 

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38 minutes ago, RamNut said:

What is it?

interestingly i've done the absolute opposite.

Spent over £30k maintaining and repairing a car that is probably worth £500.

 

 

What did you buy RN? I've spent more money than I care to remember over the years on cars and motorbikes but hey ho can't take it with you.

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On ‎30‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 20:15, Zag zig said:

Time for an annual bump.

So another year on just reflecting in brief on thoughts this time last year, mainly if anyone wants to comment?.

Bond markets, ditto with yields looking to creep in 2019 despite the late drops. So for Stock Markets, once again optimists won largely over pessimistic views but there is definitely a wobble in the air and the traditional Santa rally was very late, in amongst the end of year volatility and sell offs.

As last year my preference would be even more away from the large caps and diversified into small cap miners, except I’d be strict in those already in production or near term producers; mainly as with any bumps coming, raising cash will be ever difficult. So I’m riding a few existing good winners or the sort that will likely do well on the Tsx.v or Asx juniors, with the odd gem amongst LSE’s AIM cesspit.

Commodities remains my sector of interest and both Gold and Silver have posted late year gains, I’d hope will continue? Surprise for me and one I got wrong, was the sell off on Lithium stocks due to weak prices in China. So no surprise 3 of the 6 worst performing mining stocks in Canada were linked to the battery material sector. Similarly, the best performer here and across the water were Vanadium miners, a little known commodity but important ingredient to strengthen steel. No surprise when the value of Vanadium doubles in a year, stocks in the sector have done so well.

Oil is something I kept away from and the sector has been smashed, is the bottom in, doubt it if global demand weakens, you rarely see oil prices go high on weak markets, so I’ll continue to avoid. The interesting thing is the flight away from the petro dollar, those believing the dollar will remain the market leader are in denial; there seems so many examples in such as Russia, Iran, the Middle East in general where this is unravelling.

Debt around the world still looks perilous and property markets over heated but with evidence of weakening real estate in various economies. So I wouldn’t invest in property other than for a home right now. 

Which leaves me to mull crypto currencies. Well!

Really hope you stayed a wuss. That the G20 decided to take action to regulate crypto currencies really shouldn’t be any surprise; they are an easy target in that trying to launch alternative currency was never likely to go unchallenged. The surprise was that it was China leading the way. Just another ponzi version of fiat for me too. Good luck to early winners but I just didn’t have the faith and still glad I don’t.

Some small musings, maybe Silly Billy will chirp up again, but open to anyone for thoughts on this/ next year.

You can see how much the US are invested in the petro dollar with Saudi when they continue to back the regime despite blatant foul play. It would unravel a lot more quickly if they got in league with the Chinese/Russians. I've not allowed myself to take this too seriously but with the form of someone like Trump in charge, you do question whether the end game is a designed US default and bankruptcy; he has done it in business several times to great advantage. Next year the US will run a trillion dollar deficit. It makes sense if you're finally calling the end game to buy as much of the world's assets for dollars that you have printed for "free". I don't think we're quite there personally but I do think Trump is more astute than people give him credit for, if the rest of the world is financing America with cheap debt and minimal consequence he will get growth with it while he can. 

I have a growing watch list of miners too most of which are very badly beat up. I've got other business priorities at the moment (sold almost everything throughout this year leaving only my SIPP which I can't access anyway) and its a very easy decision for me to not put any more new money in until things play out to their conclusion in the wider economy. 10 years since our last recession so approaching the longest period of recovery we've ever had? I expect the miners to ultimately go a lot lower in the next couple of years so I am not tempted in either at these prices, at all. Same when I look at the rest of the market. Nothing looks like value still. I am relieved to be out to be honest and have stopped following the markets day-to-day while I concentrate fully on the day job. Still keeping myself relatively informed but not enough skin in the game now to obsess over it. 

I back the US stance on China too which is causing jitters. Economic appeasement policies with China won't work. Until they open up their internal market as fully as the Western world does then call their bluff. Everybody loses but China loses more. China counts on this fact; namely that a Western leader needs to go back to the ballot box every 4-5 years so can't take the short term pain and therefore China wins out. The one major advantage of their political system is they can look long term. Their influence is so great now the playing field needs to be levelled otherwise the UK will be sold out while we can't even buy a timeshare in Beijing.

 

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21 hours ago, King Kevin said:

What did you buy RN? I've spent more money than I care to remember over the years on cars and motorbikes but hey ho can't take it with you.

Nothing exciting i'm afraid. A Japanese 2.0 auto.

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24 minutes ago, SillyBilly said:

have stopped following the markets day-to-day while I concentrate fully on the day job.

Crikey.....i assumed this was your day job.

whats the day job?

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7 hours ago, SillyBilly said:

..... have a growing watch list of miners too most of which are very badly beat up. I've got other business priorities at the moment (sold almost everything throughout this year leaving only my SIPP which I can't access anyway) and its a very easy decision for me to not put any more new money in until things play out to their conclusion in the wider economy. 10 years since our last recession so approaching the longest period of recovery we've ever had? I expect the miners to ultimately go a lot lower in the next couple of years so I am not tempted in either at these prices, at all. Same when I look at the rest of the market. Nothing looks like value still. I am relieved to be out to be honest and have stopped following the markets day-to-day while I concentrate fully on the day job. Still keeping myself relatively informed but not enough skin in the game now to obsess over it. 

 

...........a Western leader needs to go back to the ballot box every 4-5 years so can't take the short term pain and therefore China wins out. The one major advantage of their political system is they can look long term.

Funny I’m exactly the opposite, almost to the point, I see value in a handful of battered miners now and had a great run last year. Whereas I found business so testing and profit so low, I’m contemplating jacking in, as the hassle, stress, call it whatever you like, really got to me at times. Never obsess with markets, as I tend to view them as investments but keep enough of an eye on them, just in case of the need to take action. Right now I see a few resource picks as good value for any commodities price appreciation, which I think will happen over the next few months. Just my personal opinion f.w.i.w

Good point on China, that many would not consider but rings true. Another point is business in China, as in corporate governance is so unregulated, you only have to look at all the basket cases that have delisted from Western listings and share holders ridden rough shod over; would take a lot for me to trust any Chinese stock market investment for starters.

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