kevinhectoring

Raheem Sterling and Mo Salah miss a handful of those every season. Imagine what CBT is looking at. First he doesn’t know whether W will shoot or cross. (What he does know is, he should have crossed 2 seconds earlier. ) Then the ball is hit pretty hard, inside of the foot, so it has swing. It is aerial. ( This type of ball is now necessary because W is releasing the ball too late. ) Then, the ball is coming between the keeper - who almost reaches it with his right hand - and the defender. Distracting. And - critically - it is hit so as not to be a volley but instead to be a half volley; except half volleys come in various sizes, ranging from yorkers to long half volleys, and more precision is needed than when hitting a volley. Oh and because of the angles CBT is having to travel more quickly then he was when he should have received the ball. I expect xG had it at well above a 50% chance. I’d agree it’s above 50 but in this div not by much at all. Looking forward to your laughing emoji

I need to watch it again then, that is not my recollection at all.

I was one of many who advocated bringing Hourihane on if we were drawing after 70 mins. But a cursory glance at Wycombe’s chances late on shows that his head is now in the departure lounge: he was almost single-handedly responsible for a Wycombe goal on more than one occasion, dawdling around defensively like Tom Lawrence in one of his sulks. Sorry to say the safest place for him now is Villa Park. Otherwise he might enter the annals of our club’s history of end-of-season near misses

Joe Ward has added significantly to the fluidity we have had recently and he makes Wilson play better. We missed him

I think NML can complete a full season - despite being 31, having a big frame and being a high intensity player. but not if he’s overplayed. It a question not of too many matches, but of too many minutes.

CBT was angry the ball wasn’t released to him earlier. Meant that instead of getting a pass along the ground with the keeper stranded he gets a fizzy cross that misses the defender by a whisker and is not easily redirected

NML has been gradually ground down over the season. Same happened last season. And yet we expect miracles from him

I don’t think Wycombe or their fans will be 100% tonight. Their season is over. And I don’t think they remain as focused as we do on the Morris/Couhig history. The only question is whether our fans will goad them from their torpidity…

I’d be surprised to see a change. I think Vickers started (?in Jan) for contractual reasons or similar and I think Wildsmith is the better keeper. Conditions at Portsmouth were awful so keeping errors were likely. That said, Wildsmith does seem to be developing a habit of walzing out to the left front corner of his box then doing something crazy. It looks awful when it happens but one of his great strengths is decisiveness and quick thinking and so when he gets things wrong it looks even worse than it is, because he commits to it 100%

We need to unlock a solid defence. I’d pair Tommo w CBT on the left and appoint Waggy cheerleader. After his rest I think NML will cause havoc down the rw so hopefully Collo has his heading boots on. Hourihane on as AM if we’re not winning at 70 mins. He might find space up there as they tire. If Ward is fit, selection becomes more difficult …

I was with you until Fozzy took his shirt off.

Excellent. If we get in a pickle we get a 75% tax write off

Wish I could oblige. 2 months ago I would have said we’d lose in the play offs. But with the side we’re selecting, and with how we’re playing, I’d now say we’d be favourites.

the most exciting way to go up is through the play offs.

NML might be ok off the bench on the right wing in the champ. Barks would be on the bench imo i feel Nelson could be useful at CB, also dare I say it Fozzy if his injury is overcome. the type of player he is, I agree Smith might struggle next season if we go up. But he’s got a very important part to play alongside Adams for these last few games Yes, Ward, Wilson, Cash, CBT could comfortably thrive in the championship in the right set up maybe Nyambe too We have only one player who could survive in the PL and he’s a goalie

I assume you mean ‘problem for Warne’? The idea the dressing room votes for captain is comical. The manager should be in charge. It’s been a costly cop out and hopefully it does not cost us promotion.

I post a gentle reference to Portsmouth’s most famous son, and you and Clint Eastwood hold me out to public ridicule on the forum. I have been a gibbering wreck for days. You seem to think I’m in the camp that believes that we have found the best starting X1 only because of injuries. I’m not. If you look at my post more carefully you’ll see I’m saying simply that it has taken us far too long to settle on a balanced and effective startling line up. I think for example that this season we’ve overused Hourihane massively, overplayed NML, mis-used Fozzie (I agree with your assessment of him of course), underplayed Barkhuizen, Ward, Fornah (maybe) and Wilson and possibly underplayed Tommo. Dropping Wildsmith was obviously just weird but let’s assume there were other things going on. I also agree with you that Nyambe is a useful and good footballer but I’m not sure - even if fit - that he should start right now. The costly error imo - you can debate this of course - has been to accommodate Hourihane in the starting line up. I’ll be astonished if - having seen how much better we are without him - he ever starts again. That took 38 games ! I think a lot of people will be posting about that if we don’t go up

I don’t think Hourihane will start again. I think Warne has finally understood what a drag he is on the team.

I’d assumed he’s an obsessive roller skater

Your use of language doesn’t help you. I suspect you are saying not that goals are random; but that chance plays a part in whether or not a goal is scored from a particular situation. True of course. But chance ultimately obeys the laws of probability. So of course your two hypothetical teams won’t draw all the time. But if they play an infinite number of times, each is likely to score the same number of goals

What is the acoustic like for live music? I fear it might be very poor, except for small a capella renaissance choirs or baroque violins playing unaccompanied Bach. Sorry to lower the pitch er tone

We’ve now got the best balanced side we’ve had all season imo, a side that has the ability to outplay the oppo as well as grind out results; a side that is showing the consistency we have lacked for most of the season. That’s why I agree with those who are predicting promotion. I don’t think using words like ‘stumbled’ is helpful, but I think it has taken us far too long to work out how best to utilise the squad. Happy to provide more detail but if I do I fear you’ll merely criticise me for being negative.

It would be anomalous if it wasn’t anonymous

You say xG should award 1.0 for a goal? You miss the point that goals involve varying degrees of good fortune. If you award 1.0 to Ward’s second goal, on a xG assessment, you overvalue the chance massively. It was neither perfect attacking nor the worst defending. It was a goal that was scored through a generous dollop of good fortune. (Fact is, he was too far out to sensibly shoot and the defender was pretty well-positioned, as was the keeper ) There are two quite separate things : the quality of the scoring opportunity and the fact a goal was scored. Apples and oranges. I think you’re mixing them up

DC will be painfully aware of the reckless disregard Couhig showed for our club’s future. Wonder if Couhig will offer him hospitality and whether DC will accept it If I were DC I’d take my plane to Dublin and award myself a free rams TV pass