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Albert

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  1. Like
    Albert got a reaction from BIllyD in Coronavirus   
    The obvious ones are the Spanish Flu and H1N1. 
    Hahahaha! I hope you're not being serious, it's pretty much your only tactic on here. 
    As noted, this has been dealt with in detail, you're just stabbing at the figures with the flimsiest of reasons. 
    It's not, it's something noted in the literature, and is well known to happen during pandemics. The UK's low testing figures in the first wave means it's very likely those early figures in particular will be revised up. 
  2. Like
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    The obvious ones are the Spanish Flu and H1N1. 
    Hahahaha! I hope you're not being serious, it's pretty much your only tactic on here. 
    As noted, this has been dealt with in detail, you're just stabbing at the figures with the flimsiest of reasons. 
    It's not, it's something noted in the literature, and is well known to happen during pandemics. The UK's low testing figures in the first wave means it's very likely those early figures in particular will be revised up. 
  3. Like
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    'Personal evidence' which you 'won't share'... honestly, I cannot think of any kind of evidence you could have and hide that would make your attempted argument here valid. 
    Also, how dare I not call it tintoil time, it's literally tinfoil time, as demonstrated. 
    Given that you expect all cause mortality to be down due to the restrictions, the 5 year isn't always the best comparison at this point. As has been discussed for a long time on here, we won't know the full extent of the deaths in the UK or globally until this is all over. Death tolls from pandemics are always revised up though. 
    @G STAR RAM certainly doesn't have such a clear claim. They're just randomly stabbing at the figures, hoping to spread some doubt it seems. 
  4. Clap
    Albert reacted to Bob The Badger in Coronavirus   
    Get a grip?
    Do you know how QAnon started?
    A comment with a message board post that most people think was made initially as a joke.
    You invented something, then when challenged you had to back down.
    But to retain credibility you had to cling on to it it being plausible to your way of thinking.
    Because without that, you just ridiculous for making stuff up.
    And you want me to get a grip?
    Seems reasonable.
     
  5. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    It's called an anecdote. It can, if verified, act as a single data point is a discussion, but we're not discussing 1 deaths, or a dozen, we're discussing over 110,000 at this point. 
    As noted, the 28 days figure will likely contain some people who died of other causes. As noted, for the number of people who have been diagnosed with Covid-19, you'd expect from standard mortality figures in the UK that around ~2,500 of those people would die within that 28 day window. This person from the anecdote would fall within that category. 
    Now, the issue is that the blade cuts both ways on that one though, as people do die from Covid-19 after 28 days, and the 28 days figures will miss people who died by never were tested, though this is hopefully less of a concern in the UK compared to some other countries.
    Ultimately though, as noted, the numbers we're talking are of such a scale that diddling around the edges isn't changing the horrific reality of the situation. More than 110,000 people have died, and there does not exist of clear way of playing the denialism game anymore. 
  6. Like
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    An imagined one, possibly... not the one we live in though. As noted, there is literally no data to back such a claim. The numbers of deaths from the flu and pneumonia are simply no where near the levels we have seen from Covid-19, and hence the argument that these are 'displaced deaths' simply doesn't hold any water for the reasons discussed above. You are, at the very least, alluding to the future of discussions around this pandemic, where Covid denialism joins the ranks of holocaust denialism, etc. 
  7. Like
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    You say this, but it seems to be based on absolutely nothing. As noted, studies of time to death for Covid-19 note that a not insignificant fraction of people die after 28 days. Equally, in the 'control' scenario for deaths within 28 days, ie just picking that many people at random from the population, you'd expect ~2,500 of those people to die within 28 days of their test based on standard mortality statistics in the UK. 
    You say just wave your arms about declaring 'I think it's overstated', but it's tinfoil time in doing so. There is simply no evidence based reason to claim such. 
    Because it is based on deaths within 28 days, and studies globally have been showing that countries are tending to underestimate, as they usually do in epidemics. People get missed by the system, but deaths within healthcare settings tend not to be missed. 
    More directly here, for the number of positive cases the UK has had, you would expect around 2,500 would die of all causes over that 28 day period; 110,000 people have died. Equally, as noted, Covid-19 can and does take in excess of 28 days to kill some of its victims, hence concerns of an underestimate there before getting into the issue of 'people missed' as noted above. 
    It's hard to tell, but the drop seen is consistent with what has been seen elsewhere in the World due to restrictions, including countries like Australia, where there haven't been these levels of deaths. The bigger point is, however, that the notion that there are 'displaced deaths' is just ridiculous, and does not fit with the data. 
  8. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    Define a 'reasonable percentage'. The 5 year average for flu and pneumonia deaths was 28,188, while 14,013 died of flu and pneumonia from January to August in 2020. So far, Covid-19 has killed at least 110,250 people, and this, as noted, is likely an underestimate. Given the numbers there, even in a hand wavey manner, you could at best claim that the flu and pneumonia would have replaced of the order of 15,000 deaths out of 110,000, ie ~14%. 
    Again, this notion that these are 'displaced deaths', or 'misattributed deaths' is fanciful, and simply not something based in reality. 
    That's because it was a replacement question for the previous one, which was already answered. You may as well have been asking: 
    "Show me where I put on a purple hat and danced the macarena". 
    Well, you didn't to my knowledge, but no one claimed you did either. 
  9. Like
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    ??? What? 
    You've been given three simple questions, and refused to answer them. 
    You made a point just above, which was answered, and you've seemingly ignored it in this post. 
    Now you're claiming I've 'swerved the question'. What do you think I've 'swerved' exactly? I'm happy to answer a question if you have one. 
  10. Like
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    ...and there's the concession from you, you can't even answer questions properly. 
    Have a nice day mate. 
  11. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    It's not correct because I've said so, it's correct because it's what the research has shown. The flu usually has an R_0 in the sub 1.6 range (H1N1 for example was 1.4-1.6, which was quite a contagious flu strain), while the virus that causes Covid-19 has an R_0 well in excess of 2, with some estimates over 5. Ultimately, restrictions bring down the effective reproduction number, and as long as it's kept below 1, the number of cases will drop. As the flu and Covid-19 are spread by roughly the same means, this means that controls that bring down the rate of transmission of Covid-19 also impact the flu. Since it's so much more contagious though, you expect if the growth of Covid-19 is arrested to any extent, that the flu numbers would be through their boots, which is exactly what has been observed. 
  12. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    The Tories are right leaning, but they certainly don't fall in the 'hard to far right' bracket. They've been incompetent this pandemic, but that's an entirely different story. 
    You've not actually answered my questions at all. Let's just make it three questions, and you can answer each in turn. If you fail to do so, I'll take that as a concession that you realise you're mistaken here:
    What are you saying has been 'admitted' here exactly? Are you saying that it is not correct to point out that such is from right wing think tanks, publications etc? What possible reason do you have for pointing that out being problematic?   
  13. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta in Coronavirus   
    It's called an anecdote. It can, if verified, act as a single data point is a discussion, but we're not discussing 1 deaths, or a dozen, we're discussing over 110,000 at this point. 
    As noted, the 28 days figure will likely contain some people who died of other causes. As noted, for the number of people who have been diagnosed with Covid-19, you'd expect from standard mortality figures in the UK that around ~2,500 of those people would die within that 28 day window. This person from the anecdote would fall within that category. 
    Now, the issue is that the blade cuts both ways on that one though, as people do die from Covid-19 after 28 days, and the 28 days figures will miss people who died by never were tested, though this is hopefully less of a concern in the UK compared to some other countries.
    Ultimately though, as noted, the numbers we're talking are of such a scale that diddling around the edges isn't changing the horrific reality of the situation. More than 110,000 people have died, and there does not exist of clear way of playing the denialism game anymore. 
  14. Sad
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    The one that is so frustrating with this is while things will recover, Texas is right, those that inhabit the UK the longest will be the hardest hit in many respects, particularly due to growing concerns about the long term health consequences of this disease. If the early data is to be believed, the health burden, and associated costs, could haunt the country for decades to come. What makes it more frustrating is that risk, and all the pain and suffering that is being caused right now, could have been prevented. 
    Ultimately, the UK has locked down longer than it ever would have needed to, and is doing so with none of the benefits. 
  15. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    You try this on after claiming I'm 'wumming' above? Wow. Just wow. 
    This has been discussed to death on here, to the level that you'd have to be genuinely on the wind up to post otherwise at this point. The reproduction number of Covid-19 is higher than the flu. This means that it's easy for the flu to be suppressed. The question of whether the spread of a disease is stopped or not is down to the level of controls, that that decreases the effective reproduction number. This means people not following restrictions will lead to Covid-19 flaring up, without necessarily reaching a point where the Flu will flare up. It's not complicated stuff. 
  16. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    ...mate, it's literally what you started with... it's right there...
    Again, the fact that you've since needed to do a retake of what you're asking says it all.
    Except nobody is. What people have done is point out that some of the "sources" posted on here are from right wing publications and think tankers. It's literally calling a spade of spade, it's who those groups are. 
    Equally, hard to far right wing groups are out there campaigning against lockdowns etc, using those sources. 
    Of course you wouldn't people calling for other actions left wing, as only one side has attempted to politicise the situation, as discussed. The thing is though, as noted, you originally said:
    As noted, you also said:
    Answering the original request to 'find any post where [you] have frame any opinion on this situation as left wing or right wing'. 
  17. Like
    Albert got a reaction from Wolfie in Coronavirus   
    You try this on after claiming I'm 'wumming' above? Wow. Just wow. 
    This has been discussed to death on here, to the level that you'd have to be genuinely on the wind up to post otherwise at this point. The reproduction number of Covid-19 is higher than the flu. This means that it's easy for the flu to be suppressed. The question of whether the spread of a disease is stopped or not is down to the level of controls, that that decreases the effective reproduction number. This means people not following restrictions will lead to Covid-19 flaring up, without necessarily reaching a point where the Flu will flare up. It's not complicated stuff. 
  18. Clap
    Albert reacted to BIllyD in Coronavirus   
    Wow, so because someone is nearing the end of their life, we didn't know how long he had left, not that it matters, is being used as evidence of over inflating of numbers.
    Unfortunately this individual died as the result of COVID, I have a low immunity as the result of having cancer, if I got COVID and passed away, I suppose the root cause is also the cancer and it would be over egging it to put down COVID. Don't worry was going to die at some point anyway. 
    My uncle passed away last week, had COVID whilst in hospital, however died of heart failure, went down as what it was, it's what is the cause of death that is recorded.
  19. Clap
    Albert reacted to Stive Pesley in Coronavirus   
    Well not really  - if someone has terminal cancer and they get hit by a car, or someone murders them, do we say that they actually died of cancer and the road fatalities/murder statistics are being overstated? Don't think so
    Because let's face it - we're all dying from the day we're born so the "they were going to die anyway so it shouldn't be counted as a Covid death" argument is really weak
     
     
  20. Like
    Albert got a reaction from BIllyD in Coronavirus   
    You try this on after claiming I'm 'wumming' above? Wow. Just wow. 
    This has been discussed to death on here, to the level that you'd have to be genuinely on the wind up to post otherwise at this point. The reproduction number of Covid-19 is higher than the flu. This means that it's easy for the flu to be suppressed. The question of whether the spread of a disease is stopped or not is down to the level of controls, that that decreases the effective reproduction number. This means people not following restrictions will lead to Covid-19 flaring up, without necessarily reaching a point where the Flu will flare up. It's not complicated stuff. 
  21. Sad
    Albert got a reaction from Stive Pesley in Coronavirus   
    The one that is so frustrating with this is while things will recover, Texas is right, those that inhabit the UK the longest will be the hardest hit in many respects, particularly due to growing concerns about the long term health consequences of this disease. If the early data is to be believed, the health burden, and associated costs, could haunt the country for decades to come. What makes it more frustrating is that risk, and all the pain and suffering that is being caused right now, could have been prevented. 
    Ultimately, the UK has locked down longer than it ever would have needed to, and is doing so with none of the benefits. 
  22. Like
    Albert got a reaction from GboroRam in Coronavirus   
    You try this on after claiming I'm 'wumming' above? Wow. Just wow. 
    This has been discussed to death on here, to the level that you'd have to be genuinely on the wind up to post otherwise at this point. The reproduction number of Covid-19 is higher than the flu. This means that it's easy for the flu to be suppressed. The question of whether the spread of a disease is stopped or not is down to the level of controls, that that decreases the effective reproduction number. This means people not following restrictions will lead to Covid-19 flaring up, without necessarily reaching a point where the Flu will flare up. It's not complicated stuff. 
  23. Like
    Albert got a reaction from GboroRam in Coronavirus   
    ...mate, it's literally what you started with... it's right there...
    Again, the fact that you've since needed to do a retake of what you're asking says it all.
    Except nobody is. What people have done is point out that some of the "sources" posted on here are from right wing publications and think tankers. It's literally calling a spade of spade, it's who those groups are. 
    Equally, hard to far right wing groups are out there campaigning against lockdowns etc, using those sources. 
    Of course you wouldn't people calling for other actions left wing, as only one side has attempted to politicise the situation, as discussed. The thing is though, as noted, you originally said:
    As noted, you also said:
    Answering the original request to 'find any post where [you] have frame any opinion on this situation as left wing or right wing'. 
  24. Like
    Albert reacted to Bob The Badger in Coronavirus   
    Well, I'm glad you admitted you made it up.
    But, the caveat of it being plausible undermines that, because it's highly implausible.
    Of course some of the symptoms are the same, but the tests are totally different.
    When I had my first COVID test they did a flu test first that took about 10-15 minutes.
    After that came back negative and I had thrown up in the doctor's waste paper bin they tested me for COVID.
    As far as I'm aware they're not guessing for COVID, they are testing for it.
    So tossing out statements like it being plausible that some of the people have had the flu and not COVID is both dangerous because that is how rumours start and false information gets perpetuated, and demonstrates a lack of understanding.
  25. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Coronavirus   
    ...and there you go again, let me emphasise this for you:
    Notice here how you're characterising actual action against the virus as 'left wing'. It's not, as demonstrated previously. The only side of politics which has attempted to politicise this virus is the hard to far right, as discussed. It's brought up because there was a period of time on here where people were consistently posting things from right wing think tanks, which had no scientific basis to them, as though we should have been treating them with the same level of seriousness as actual studies. 
    Again, if you make this a 'left v right' thing, then reality has a significant left wing bias. It doesn't, of course, but that's because this isn't, nor ever has been, a 'left v right' thing. It's just that some right wing opportunists took it as a chance to push their ideologies, as discussed. 
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