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Albert

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  1. Like
    Albert got a reaction from IlsonDerby in Only One Auto to play For.....Apparently.   
    That's exactly the point with the percentages, there is an expected result, and there is what actually happens. A percentage takes into account both being possible, but quantifies them. 
    Bookies always have a starting price, and they adjust things to limit their risk where they can. Ultimately though, they make their money on the large scale because such probabilistic behaviour is there. That's the whole point though. You can't say who will definitely win any game, but you can give trends that on average will be followed. 
  2. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from Dordogne-Ram in Only One Auto to play For.....Apparently.   
    They're not saying 'football is predictable', quite the opposite in fact. The logic here is that if you could take the World as it is now, and replay this 10,000 times, we'd go up in ~5,300 of those times. That says nothing of the how that happens, it just looks at the historical distribution of how things play out, ie it's not 'if everything says as it is, Derby go up 53% of the time', it's more considering all possibilities and quantifying how likely it is for different scenarios to play out. 
    To put it another way, in the Worlds where Sheffield Wednesday finish 7th from here, it's very likely that it would be injuries to key players that precipitated that outcome. In the Worlds that Bolton go on to become Champions, it's unlikely the rest of the top 6 stayed injury free. 
  3. Like
    Albert reacted to Carl Sagan in Only One Auto to play For.....Apparently.   
    Like doing a weather forecast, @Albertis running a Monte Carlo simulation, with the same initial conditions each time and seeing how things pan out in the remaining games. Run this 10,000 times and you might get the distribution he mentions. There are rare occurrences such as Bolton winning the league or a hurricane on Michael Fish's watch, which look unlikely so are often discounted, but occasionally do happen if a series of unlikely events unfold. It's a different outcome (sometimes by a lot, sometimes a little) in each of the simulations but running so many of them from this point gives you the likelihood of the different end points.
  4. Like
    Albert got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Only One Auto to play For.....Apparently.   
    They're not saying 'football is predictable', quite the opposite in fact. The logic here is that if you could take the World as it is now, and replay this 10,000 times, we'd go up in ~5,300 of those times. That says nothing of the how that happens, it just looks at the historical distribution of how things play out, ie it's not 'if everything says as it is, Derby go up 53% of the time', it's more considering all possibilities and quantifying how likely it is for different scenarios to play out. 
    To put it another way, in the Worlds where Sheffield Wednesday finish 7th from here, it's very likely that it would be injuries to key players that precipitated that outcome. In the Worlds that Bolton go on to become Champions, it's unlikely the rest of the top 6 stayed injury free. 
  5. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from Carl Sagan in Only One Auto to play For.....Apparently.   
    They're not saying 'football is predictable', quite the opposite in fact. The logic here is that if you could take the World as it is now, and replay this 10,000 times, we'd go up in ~5,300 of those times. That says nothing of the how that happens, it just looks at the historical distribution of how things play out, ie it's not 'if everything says as it is, Derby go up 53% of the time', it's more considering all possibilities and quantifying how likely it is for different scenarios to play out. 
    To put it another way, in the Worlds where Sheffield Wednesday finish 7th from here, it's very likely that it would be injuries to key players that precipitated that outcome. In the Worlds that Bolton go on to become Champions, it's unlikely the rest of the top 6 stayed injury free. 
  6. Like
    Albert got a reaction from GenBr in Do we have a tough start with the fixtures this season   
    "Do we have a tough start?"
    "I would be happy with 27 points from the first 12 matches."
    ??? 27 points from the first 12 matches would be nailed on promotion form. 2 points per game is title challenger stuff, you're putting your 'happy with' target at 2.25 points per game. Wigan were on 25 after 12 last season. So no, you're not rating that as a 'tough run'. 
    Honestly, I'd be happy with 18-20 points in our first 12 matches. It'd have us in with a shout of the playoffs, and honestly, we've just been relegated, our squad has been shaken through its core. It'll take time for us to find our feet, a 'touch run' or not. We'll likely start slow and build as the squad gets used to each other, the league, etc. 
    There's no need to expect miracles this season. 
  7. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from Marriot Ram99 in Do we have a tough start with the fixtures this season   
    "Do we have a tough start?"
    "I would be happy with 27 points from the first 12 matches."
    ??? 27 points from the first 12 matches would be nailed on promotion form. 2 points per game is title challenger stuff, you're putting your 'happy with' target at 2.25 points per game. Wigan were on 25 after 12 last season. So no, you're not rating that as a 'tough run'. 
    Honestly, I'd be happy with 18-20 points in our first 12 matches. It'd have us in with a shout of the playoffs, and honestly, we've just been relegated, our squad has been shaken through its core. It'll take time for us to find our feet, a 'touch run' or not. We'll likely start slow and build as the squad gets used to each other, the league, etc. 
    There's no need to expect miracles this season. 
  8. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from Zag zig in Do we have a tough start with the fixtures this season   
    "Do we have a tough start?"
    "I would be happy with 27 points from the first 12 matches."
    ??? 27 points from the first 12 matches would be nailed on promotion form. 2 points per game is title challenger stuff, you're putting your 'happy with' target at 2.25 points per game. Wigan were on 25 after 12 last season. So no, you're not rating that as a 'tough run'. 
    Honestly, I'd be happy with 18-20 points in our first 12 matches. It'd have us in with a shout of the playoffs, and honestly, we've just been relegated, our squad has been shaken through its core. It'll take time for us to find our feet, a 'touch run' or not. We'll likely start slow and build as the squad gets used to each other, the league, etc. 
    There's no need to expect miracles this season. 
  9. Like
    Albert got a reaction from Steve How Hard? in Do we have a tough start with the fixtures this season   
    "Do we have a tough start?"
    "I would be happy with 27 points from the first 12 matches."
    ??? 27 points from the first 12 matches would be nailed on promotion form. 2 points per game is title challenger stuff, you're putting your 'happy with' target at 2.25 points per game. Wigan were on 25 after 12 last season. So no, you're not rating that as a 'tough run'. 
    Honestly, I'd be happy with 18-20 points in our first 12 matches. It'd have us in with a shout of the playoffs, and honestly, we've just been relegated, our squad has been shaken through its core. It'll take time for us to find our feet, a 'touch run' or not. We'll likely start slow and build as the squad gets used to each other, the league, etc. 
    There's no need to expect miracles this season. 
  10. Like
    Albert got a reaction from archram in Do we have a tough start with the fixtures this season   
    "Do we have a tough start?"
    "I would be happy with 27 points from the first 12 matches."
    ??? 27 points from the first 12 matches would be nailed on promotion form. 2 points per game is title challenger stuff, you're putting your 'happy with' target at 2.25 points per game. Wigan were on 25 after 12 last season. So no, you're not rating that as a 'tough run'. 
    Honestly, I'd be happy with 18-20 points in our first 12 matches. It'd have us in with a shout of the playoffs, and honestly, we've just been relegated, our squad has been shaken through its core. It'll take time for us to find our feet, a 'touch run' or not. We'll likely start slow and build as the squad gets used to each other, the league, etc. 
    There's no need to expect miracles this season. 
  11. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from Srg in Do we have a tough start with the fixtures this season   
    "Do we have a tough start?"
    "I would be happy with 27 points from the first 12 matches."
    ??? 27 points from the first 12 matches would be nailed on promotion form. 2 points per game is title challenger stuff, you're putting your 'happy with' target at 2.25 points per game. Wigan were on 25 after 12 last season. So no, you're not rating that as a 'tough run'. 
    Honestly, I'd be happy with 18-20 points in our first 12 matches. It'd have us in with a shout of the playoffs, and honestly, we've just been relegated, our squad has been shaken through its core. It'll take time for us to find our feet, a 'touch run' or not. We'll likely start slow and build as the squad gets used to each other, the league, etc. 
    There's no need to expect miracles this season. 
  12. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from Crewton in Do we have a tough start with the fixtures this season   
    "Do we have a tough start?"
    "I would be happy with 27 points from the first 12 matches."
    ??? 27 points from the first 12 matches would be nailed on promotion form. 2 points per game is title challenger stuff, you're putting your 'happy with' target at 2.25 points per game. Wigan were on 25 after 12 last season. So no, you're not rating that as a 'tough run'. 
    Honestly, I'd be happy with 18-20 points in our first 12 matches. It'd have us in with a shout of the playoffs, and honestly, we've just been relegated, our squad has been shaken through its core. It'll take time for us to find our feet, a 'touch run' or not. We'll likely start slow and build as the squad gets used to each other, the league, etc. 
    There's no need to expect miracles this season. 
  13. Haha
    Albert reacted to KBB in How’s it going to be on opening day   
    Boo em off if we aren't 4.0 up by halftime.
  14. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from GboroRam in The Administration Thread   
    It's amazing how terrible a job Morris did with the club. Given the storied history of mismanagement at the club, Morris really has set a new high water mark. 
    While it's not the thing to talk about, it would be a fitting end for the damn Candy Crush tycoon, who claims to have been a fan, to have taken a club on the rise and taken them to the brink instead. 
  15. Like
    Albert got a reaction from GenBr in The Administration Thread   
    It's amazing how terrible a job Morris did with the club. Given the storied history of mismanagement at the club, Morris really has set a new high water mark. 
    While it's not the thing to talk about, it would be a fitting end for the damn Candy Crush tycoon, who claims to have been a fan, to have taken a club on the rise and taken them to the brink instead. 
  16. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from jimtastic56 in The Administration Thread   
    It's amazing how terrible a job Morris did with the club. Given the storied history of mismanagement at the club, Morris really has set a new high water mark. 
    While it's not the thing to talk about, it would be a fitting end for the damn Candy Crush tycoon, who claims to have been a fan, to have taken a club on the rise and taken them to the brink instead. 
  17. Like
    Albert got a reaction from rammieib in The Administration Thread   
    It's amazing that Kirchner, who owns a logistics company, couldn't even get money across the Atlantic. 
    Surely, this failure cannot be good for his business reputation. 
  18. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from jono in The Administration Thread   
    It's amazing that Kirchner, who owns a logistics company, couldn't even get money across the Atlantic. 
    Surely, this failure cannot be good for his business reputation. 
  19. Clap
    Albert got a reaction from Jimbo Ram in The Administration Thread   
    It's amazing that Kirchner, who owns a logistics company, couldn't even get money across the Atlantic. 
    Surely, this failure cannot be good for his business reputation. 
  20. Like
    Albert got a reaction from Tamworthram in The Administration Thread   
    It's amazing that Kirchner, who owns a logistics company, couldn't even get money across the Atlantic. 
    Surely, this failure cannot be good for his business reputation. 
  21. Like
    Albert reacted to Igorwasking in Promotion odds   
    Pretty generous whilst we still have a five man squad!
  22. Like
    Albert got a reaction from i-Ram in The Administration Thread   
    It's a negotiating position. 
    If the club needs the ground, Mel can demand whatever he wants. He clearly hates the club, and would let it die for a few extra £s, so there is no leverage on the 'do it to save the club' angle. Taking the position of 'fine, keep the white elephant if you want, it's worthless as a stadium without the club, but the club isn't worthless without Pride Park' gives him something to think about. 
    Really though, I was suspicious of him buying the stadium from the start, this kind of nonsense was always the risk. Was always in it for self enrichment, and when he failed to get us up to sell, he's just asset stripped what little he can and has left the club to die. 
  23. Like
    Albert got a reaction from r_wilcockson in The Administration Thread   
    Honestly, who doesn't hate Mel Morris at this point. 
    To top the list of 'worst owners of Derby County' took some doing. 
    Kirchner clearly tried to negotiate in good faith from the start, but Morris wasn't having any of it. He's going to send this club to the wall to line his own pockets if he has to. 
    Imagine trying to basically extort the council. Seriously, the guy is like the stereotypical bad guy out of children's books at this point. I fully expect to see him finding some way to profit off an orphanage next. 
  24. Like
    Albert got a reaction from Rammeister in The Administration Thread   
    It's a negotiating position. 
    If the club needs the ground, Mel can demand whatever he wants. He clearly hates the club, and would let it die for a few extra £s, so there is no leverage on the 'do it to save the club' angle. Taking the position of 'fine, keep the white elephant if you want, it's worthless as a stadium without the club, but the club isn't worthless without Pride Park' gives him something to think about. 
    Really though, I was suspicious of him buying the stadium from the start, this kind of nonsense was always the risk. Was always in it for self enrichment, and when he failed to get us up to sell, he's just asset stripped what little he can and has left the club to die. 
  25. Like
    Albert got a reaction from Gritstone Ram in The Administration Thread   
    It's a negotiating position. 
    If the club needs the ground, Mel can demand whatever he wants. He clearly hates the club, and would let it die for a few extra £s, so there is no leverage on the 'do it to save the club' angle. Taking the position of 'fine, keep the white elephant if you want, it's worthless as a stadium without the club, but the club isn't worthless without Pride Park' gives him something to think about. 
    Really though, I was suspicious of him buying the stadium from the start, this kind of nonsense was always the risk. Was always in it for self enrichment, and when he failed to get us up to sell, he's just asset stripped what little he can and has left the club to die. 
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