Albert

21 hours ago, AndyinLiverpool said:

Nearly. They make their money from people who think you can stick a probability on to outcomes.

17 hours ago, David said:

Man City were favourites to beat Spurs yesterday, most fans would have thought they would probably win. Spurs won.

That’s football.

So much money would have been laid on bet builders with City to win, Haaland to score etc. to increase the odds.

Thats how bookies make money.

Also bookies odds change where money is being laid, they are not fixed in anyway to some percentage chance of winning some nerd with a calculator has come up with.

That's exactly the point with the percentages, there is an expected result, and there is what actually happens. A percentage takes into account both being possible, but quantifies them. 

Bookies always have a starting price, and they adjust things to limit their risk where they can. Ultimately though, they make their money on the large scale because such probabilistic behaviour is there. That's the whole point though. You can't say who will definitely win any game, but you can give trends that on average will be followed. 

13 hours ago, David said:

If you take the world as it is today, repeat it how many ever times, you are predicting that the same circumstances will occur which simply doesn't happen.

As you say, if Bolton won the league, something would have happened elsewhere, it's that something which is football, it's not a number, a stat, it's the performance levels of athletes with so many variables in their lives that it's literally impossible to stick a percentage chance on that holds any kind of worth.

Except such models make no assumptions regarding 'same circumstances' or the like. That's just not how they work. 

Also, by your logic, bookies could not exist. They make their money on the fact that you actually can stick a probability onto outcomes occurring. 

7 hours ago, David said:

Exactly.

Which is why this is nonsense, sorry. 

An ACL injury to a key player, lose a couple to suspensions for the play offs, another red card during, football isn’t predictable, if it was it would be super boring. 

They're not saying 'football is predictable', quite the opposite in fact. The logic here is that if you could take the World as it is now, and replay this 10,000 times, we'd go up in ~5,300 of those times. That says nothing of the how that happens, it just looks at the historical distribution of how things play out, ie it's not 'if everything says as it is, Derby go up 53% of the time', it's more considering all possibilities and quantifying how likely it is for different scenarios to play out. 

To put it another way, in the Worlds where Sheffield Wednesday finish 7th from here, it's very likely that it would be injuries to key players that precipitated that outcome. In the Worlds that Bolton go on to become Champions, it's unlikely the rest of the top 6 stayed injury free. 

"Do we have a tough start?"

"I would be happy with 27 points from the first 12 matches."

??? 27 points from the first 12 matches would be nailed on promotion form. 2 points per game is title challenger stuff, you're putting your 'happy with' target at 2.25 points per game. Wigan were on 25 after 12 last season. So no, you're not rating that as a 'tough run'. 

Honestly, I'd be happy with 18-20 points in our first 12 matches. It'd have us in with a shout of the playoffs, and honestly, we've just been relegated, our squad has been shaken through its core. It'll take time for us to find our feet, a 'touch run' or not. We'll likely start slow and build as the squad gets used to each other, the league, etc. 

There's no need to expect miracles this season. 

7 minutes ago, Woodypecker said:

but....the EFL resented very deeply the Mel Morris criticism (interference?) over low media revenues, and his aim to multiply the paltry EFL TV deal from putative competitors to Sky, upon renewal - it made him a target. 

Other clubs chickened out of the breakaway as MM suggested, instead of still picking up crumbs from Sky TV's dog-dish, so  MM became a marked man - and the (new) EFL TV deal remained paltry.

Not making MM out to be a hero, of course he became a destructive ogre - but those same EFL issues remain: low revenues, and the  'parachute' imbalance - which impels owners to go for broke on FFP and P&S.

Let's not pretend increased revenues were going to stop teams bending the rules; they'd just be even more empowered to do so. 

Morris likely pushed for the changes as he stared down the financial blackhole he created, and when that failed, he left us to die, as we've seen. 

The man clearly has no idea how finance in football works, as has been laid bare by this whole fiasco, and he lacks the honour to clean up the mess that he created. Does anyone really believe that his push for more TV revenue was based on anything but fantasy at this point? 

It's amazing how terrible a job Morris did with the club. Given the storied history of mismanagement at the club, Morris really has set a new high water mark. 

While it's not the thing to talk about, it would be a fitting end for the damn Candy Crush tycoon, who claims to have been a fan, to have taken a club on the rise and taken them to the brink instead. 

It's amazing that Kirchner, who owns a logistics company, couldn't even get money across the Atlantic. 

Surely, this failure cannot be good for his business reputation. 

Just now, Mihangel said:

I am a big supporter of CK, like he his style - This apparent refusal to negotiate with MM troubles me slightly though, it seems quite personal for a business process. That said, MM could sort this in a heartbeat.

Honestly, who doesn't hate Mel Morris at this point. 

To top the list of 'worst owners of Derby County' took some doing. 

Kirchner clearly tried to negotiate in good faith from the start, but Morris wasn't having any of it. He's going to send this club to the wall to line his own pockets if he has to. 

Imagine trying to basically extort the council. Seriously, the guy is like the stereotypical bad guy out of children's books at this point. I fully expect to see him finding some way to profit off an orphanage next. 

26 minutes ago, Gritstone Ram said:

Why can’t we just rent PP until a deal is sorted or would that be too simple.

It's a negotiating position. 

If the club needs the ground, Mel can demand whatever he wants. He clearly hates the club, and would let it die for a few extra £s, so there is no leverage on the 'do it to save the club' angle. Taking the position of 'fine, keep the white elephant if you want, it's worthless as a stadium without the club, but the club isn't worthless without Pride Park' gives him something to think about. 

Really though, I was suspicious of him buying the stadium from the start, this kind of nonsense was always the risk. Was always in it for self enrichment, and when he failed to get us up to sell, he's just asset stripped what little he can and has left the club to die. 

All this discussion is fascinating. 

The reality is that we've been looking down the barrel of liquidation, and it certainly isn't off the table at this point. Him being here and interested is enough to be somewhat positive, regardless of if we think he's minted enough. 

The reality is that we had an owner with what seemed an infinite pot of money, and a connection the club. Look how that turned out. Apparent wealth alone is not sufficient to determine if someone will do a good job running a club.

Honestly, at this point I'm just hoping this all goes through, and optimistic that we can be stabilised as a League One club at this point. While we're quibbling about whether he's got the cash backing to win the Champions League within the decade, we really should be asking ourselves whether there'll be a club in 3 months. 

What a complicated omnishambles Mel has created. 

I honestly can't believe these are even discussions we're needing to have on here. How did it ever get to this point? 

Mel took a club that was 'boring', but financially secure and improving season on season, and burned all that to choke repeatedly. Instead of accepting his financial mistakes in all this, he's decided to burn whatever legacy he could claim, and destroy the club. Even if he had some honour and saved the club now, by accepting whatever loss it would take to get a sale to a new party to happen, the damage is already done. 

We should have been the writing on the wall when he sold the stadium to himself, the level of dodgy involved was ridiculous, and was always a risk of coming to a head like this. The ball is still in his court for the club to survive, but it could take a decade for us to overcome this damage. 

Honestly, if Mel can get the extortion by Boro and Wycombe out of the way, it'd upgrade my rating of his time here from 0/100 to 0.1/100, so there's that. 

Surely our creditors are seething seeing this all playout. There is a deal in place, they will get what they need, but if this farce continues to go on, they surely aren't anymore. Middlesbrough killing the club at this point just comes across as vindictive, particularly as the claim appears to have limited actual legal basis. 

The EFL using Derby as a shield to protect themselves is also abhorrent. Again, I don't see how the EFL can continue in its current form after this. They are clearly not fit for purpose, such a body is there to manage and protect the clubs, not use the clubs as a shield to protect from their own incompetence. 

1 hour ago, kevinhectoring said:

I’ve answered that more than once on here

the REASON q said that, and the reason they told MPs today that this has all happened because M threatened to sue EFl, is the same reason. Namely, that Q’s plan is in tatters and so they are looking to deflect blame. 
 

don’t worry, this will be sorted. But 3 things are clear:

1 q had a plan and it is in shreds

2 They have therefore resorted to default, ar$e covering  mode so they are blaming EFl, which has seriously pi$$ed off the EFl

3 this can be resolved, I think it will be resolved. But pi$$ing off the EFL by misrepresenting the position is NOT helpful to resolving it 

I mean, this situation is the fault of the EFL from everything available to the public. 

The spurious claims by Middlesbrough and Wycombe could be dealt with near instantly, which from what Quantuma have said, will lead to Derby being bought. The reason the EFL are doing nothing, is that they are covering themselves. 

They have failed English Football, the EFL are no longer fit for purpose. It's time for them to go, however this situation resolves. 

46 minutes ago, StaffsRam said:

You’ve done well when you’ve wrought more damage than Robert Maxwell and Jeremy Keith. What a legacy…

Mel was here to leave a legacy, not to leave a club, it seems. 

25 minutes ago, TaahnRam said:

Incredibly disappointed with MM actions to get us to this point but just paying off MFC without any legal judication leaves a sour taste too surely

He could offer to underwrite them, ie take on responsibility for whatever happens with them. That way the purchase could proceed, and if by some miracle the claims turn out to be something actually worth worrying about, the cost can never go on the club. 

Of course, Morris is never going to do that. He's washed his hands of the place, and honestly stands as having the worst impact on the club in its entire history. What a shambles. 

7 minutes ago, kevinhectoring said:

I don't think you can be a world class test team without a world class spinner 

The reality is England are a long way from being World Class. If Lyon is good enough for Australia to hold the Ashes in England, and smash them 4-0 either side of that, then Leach is good enough for England. 

2 hours ago, AndyinLiverpool said:

Blimey. I just watched the 'highlights' of Day 3. I wish I hadn't.

The standard of shot selection was the worst I can remember.

There are people there who should never play test cricket again. Burns, Malan, Pope, Woakes (and I say this as a Warwickshire man) should be done. Add in Buttler and Leach and the impending retirement of Anderson and Broad and we are left with Root, Stokes, Wood, Robinson as the only players worth a place.

Honestly, there were some positives out of that in the end. 

Burns, while scratchy, does look like he could still make a decent opener. He always looked like he was up to a challenge, despite some poor innings. 

Crawley had a poor start, but also grew into the series. 

Root had a terrible series as captain, and his batting hardly set the World alight, but he certainly didn't just vanish. 

Stokes looked like he was never prepared to really be there, which is understandable.

Bairstow, for all the hate, actually looked up to the challenge, and looked a better player than last time I saw him in Australia. 

Wood and Robinson played well. 

Anderson and Broad, while at the ends of their careers, looked like they were still capable. 

Leach's series was ruined by poor selection and captaincy, but still looked capable later in the series. Playing him at the Gabba, but not in Adelaide, has to go down as one of the worst bits of selection I've ever seen. That said, Australia picked Lyon for Hobart, and he didn't bowl a single ball, so there's that. 

Add Archer and Stone to England, and there's not a lot wrong with the bowling department. Playing one of Anderson or Broad for experience, then backing them up with Robinson, Archer or Stone works fine. Leach is also a handy player, and while not a World beater, neither is someone like Nathan Lyon. England don't have a Shane Warne or an Ashwin, and that's fine. Add Stokes to the bowling group, and in that department, England are fine. Woakes should never be seen on tour again though, he is one of the least effective bowlers I've ever seen in Australia. 

Really, the issue to sort is around the batting. Burns and Crawley might work as an opening combination. Hameed is clearly not up to the task though, and honestly looked the most clueless opener England have sent in over a decade, and that's saying a lot. 

Personally, I think Root needs to bat 3, so England can build a middle order after someone solid. England lack a proper number 3, and it shows. A lot of the issues would disappear if someone could stop the bleeding after the first wicket falls, rather than the second. Australia did this with Smith in the time before they had Labuschagne filling that role. 

With the rest of the order, Stokes at 5 is fine, but having him as an attacking number 6 would also work fine. Bairstow, for all the criticms of him, would work fine in that middle order too. Then there's players like Lawrence and Pope who could fill in those key positions as well. Maybe even going for Pope at 4, Bairstow at 5 and Stokes at 6, or some combination of that. I get England believe Pope is the next big thing, so maybe he is actually work the gamble of just leaving in the side until he comes good. He wouldn't be the first who did eventually become World class. He does need to get used to leaving though. 

That just leaves the issue of the keeper, and honestly, even Australians were confused why Foakes didn't play this series. 

So yeah, I'm not convinced England don't have the quality, the issue is the selections for this series were a mess, and England were missing two key bowlers. Things like Leach at the Gabba, but not Adelaide, not Jimmy or Broad at the Gabba, etc, really hurt. The Gabba was confidence sapping, and England wilted a lot easier afterwards. 

Yeah, that was disappointing in the end. 

England looked a threat with that opening partnership, but just rolled over and died once Green broke it. 

Also, my word is Green a good player. Looks a match for Starc and Hazlewood in terms of his bowling, and batted well in the series overall. If he can translate his Shield form (averages 50+) to Test cricket, the kid could be something truly special.

Our position is actually starting to look reasonable. 

We're off the bottom, and are on 14 points from 26. Spreading the points deduction per game, we're really on ~23 points right now, and each result includes -0.46 points. That would see us out of the drop zone, though other clubs have games in hand. 

The reality is though, if the damage to the squad in the last few days doesn't harm us too much, we're in an unbelievable position given what's happened. FiveThirtyEight now rate us as 37% to stay up. Unbelievable stuff from the side.

No wonder the EFL's campaign against us has stepped up. 

17 minutes ago, Orphanram said:

 

Isn't the whole point of being in administration that it's a neutral third party making the decision making to get the best deal for creditors? There is no 'Derby' to have a row with at the moment, just Quantuma, who clearly have decided that the best way to get a deal which serves the creditors best is to not have a fire sale, and complete the purchase of the club. 

This is like someone having a cry about the kind of scrubs their surgeon is wearing. Mate, they're the experts, not you. 

7 hours ago, Mostyn6 said:

shocking that it’s even a consideration by the media! 

lolwut? Australia never had 'internment camps' for Covid positive patients. People isolate at home until cleared, which now is a negative rapid test 7 days after confirmed infection. 

Australia also never had such, no way the Morrison government could organise to actually build infrastructure. It's why I don't fear them despite all the rightwing rhetoric. Morrison can barely manage a handshake, no way he could round people up into camps.

12 minutes ago, Mostyn6 said:

Read the patents bit. 

I did, needed a good chuckle.

Cheers for that. 

1 minute ago, TexasRam said:

Why does it? If the vast majority of people are not really getting seriously ill anymore, what does the number of cases actually mean other than to support a media obsession. 

Because while most aren't getting seriously ill, the rate of people going needing hospitalisation is still not lower enough to compensate for the infectivity. To put that another way, while hospitalisation is down 70%, maybe even more, the number of infections is ballooning. How much depends on context of the country, but here in South Australia, for example, we planned for an outbreak of about 2500 cases total of delta. Yeah, we're getting 70% less hospitalisations per case, but we've got 10 times the cases already, and still climbing. If you've got 10 times the cases, then having only 30% of the hospitalisations is still 3 times the expected hospitalisations. This is happening in the space of less than a month as well, rather than the 2-3 that was expected. 

So yeah, the issue is just the shear number of people needing treatment at once. A very different situation to earlier in the pandemic. 

Honestly, this is better in some ways, worse in others. Less people, hopefully, will die of Covid, but more will be impacted by what's happening to the health system because of it. That should be over relatively quickly, with the estimated peak within January and tailing off from there, but it's not going to be a fun few weeks here. 

I hope the UK is handling things better, but the hospital numbers are climbing now too. Hopefully, the mix of factors in the UK keeps that manageable though. 

Just now, Stagtime said:

I see Victoria has canceled all elective surgery from today. Everything seems to be going ok in our little part of the world here in Qld but as you say the peak is due in a couple of weeks. Still hard to believe we haven’t had a death due to covid since 2020 but we have been warned that is likely to change. The federal election can’t come soon enough.

The issue is the lag between new cases, hospitalisations and deaths. Because omicron is spreading so fast, we're into eyewatering numbers of new cases before anything else can really catch up. 

The good news is that there does appear to be a drop in hospitalisation rate, and ICU figures do appear down, on the delta wave in NSW, even accounting for the lag, etc. This drop isn't enough to stop record hospitalisations, etc, indeed NSW are already at their record for the pandemic, as is the nation as a whole, but is encouraging. 

In terms of death, the case fatality rate of cleared cases in NSW from this wave is about 0.1-0.2%, which is very very encouraging. Between vaccination, treatments, previous immunity and a less virulent variant, it seems we're in a much better place. That's still going to be a lot of deaths though if that applies to all the active cases, however. NSW has 192,927 active cases, so a 0.1-0.2% CFR will see approximately 200-380 people lose their lives just on the cases they have right now. SA is just under 0.1% for their CFR so far, with 4 deaths. That, in a sense good news, as that's still less than the delta wave, but we're not at the peak yet.   

As to Queensland, there have been 34,271 new cases since the start of December, with 8374 cleared to date. Notionally, we'd expect about 8 deaths from that many cleared cases looking at NSW, but there are two things at play: 1) it takes time in many cases for Covid to kill, 2) you're going to get a lot of noise. Let's hope that Queensland's not just getting lucky, and the CFR overall will end up even lower. 

Overall though, while any deaths are tragic, it could be a whole lot worse than omicron is looking. The key challenge right now is for the health systems to hold up. Honestly, if we had a more competent set of governments in SA and Federally, I wouldn't actually be that worried right now. Our health system in SA, however, was struggling to cope with demand before this all started though, and we've already stopped all elective procedures, etc.