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  1. Cheers
    Carnero reacted to Dimmu in Relegation watch   
    Basically same way betting companies does, propabilities.
    There's huge differencies in the odds, which is rare to see. Obviously small change in possibility makes a big difference when there's multiple games left.
  2. Like
    Carnero got a reaction from OohMartWright in Relegation watch   
    Why do some people seem to find this so difficult to understand 🤣
  3. Clap
    Carnero reacted to Bwash_Ram in POLL: The Greatest debate on the forum   
    A is the correct way as it is easier to tear off a sheet without it rolling excessive paper.
  4. Like
    Carnero reacted to Ghost of Clough in El DerbyCo   
    15/16 - instead of Hanson filling in at CM/AM, we either go 442 with Bent up top, or push Baird to CM/AM instead. A few injuries later in the season so we're forced to play Bryson at DM. We continue with an out of form Christie or play Keogh at RB. Injuries to Forsyth and Olsson means that Shackell or Johnson have to play LB. This was all in the season when we had 30+ players on senior wages. Maybe we should have doubled down and signed another LB (on top of Forsyth and Olsson), another RB (on top of Christie and Baird) and another DM/CM/AM (on top of Hendrick, Hughes, Butterfield, Johnson, Bryson and Thorne, with Baird also capable of filling in)
    16/17 - Injuries to Olsson and Forsyth gave Lowe a chance. Perhaps we needed that 3rd senior LB afterall
    18/19 - Let's sign another RB when we already have Wisdom. Bogle may be good enough but that doesn't matter. We've already got Lawrence, just got Wilson on loan, bought Jozefzoon and Waghorn. But let's sign another winger because we don't want an academy graduate to be 5th choice on the wing, or 4th choice CF!
    19/20 - Bogle may have established himself as an excellent RB in this league, and Wisdom is capable backup, but let's sign another anyway? That 3rd choice LB on senior wages we signed back in 15/16 can play a few games again now that Malone and Forsyth are both unavailable. Plus that DM we signed in the same season and hasn't played since can now fill in for the first time since that season because 5 first team options in that position are all injured. We don't want an academy graduate to fill in as 6th choice for 2 positions. Let's continue to play the rubbish Jozefzoon and Anya rather than give a reliable player such as Knight a go. Dowell's doing poorly, but let's not cut his loan short as we don't want Sibley playing.
    20/21 - Well with no income from Lowe and Bogle, we can't recruit that exciting young winger from Poland. Anya and Jozefzoon can stick around. We also need to cave in to Huddlestone's demands and give him a 2 year deal on £20k pw just t o prevent Bird playing. Good job we've kept Malone at the club otherwise we'd be forced to include Lowe or Buchanan in the matchday squad.
  5. Like
    Carnero reacted to maxjam in Coronavirus part 2. Whitty’s Revenge   
    The problem is that we're all being manipulated by the media and politicians.  
    The Guardian article that sparked this conversation was designed for its audience to get clicks, giving it a more balanced approach wouldn't have worked so well - or generated as much income.
    The latest Project Veritas sting is a great example of this.  CNN have basically admitted that they were a propaganda wing of the Democrat party and there sole goal was, by hook or by crook, to get rid of Trump.  They also said (and to keep this on point) that after covid fatigue has died down the next thing they are going to go overboard on is the climate because and I quote 'fear sells'.  
    There are very few balanced articles these days, we are all being shepherded camps and made to despise the opposition for profit and power. 
  6. Like
    Carnero got a reaction from richinspain in Relegation watch   
    Why do some people seem to find this so difficult to understand 🤣
  7. Like
    Carnero got a reaction from Rammy03 in Relegation watch   
    Why do some people seem to find this so difficult to understand 🤣
  8. Like
    Carnero reacted to Rammy03 in Relegation watch   
    Sod Coventry and Rotherham. If we win every game from now until the end of the season we stay up. Simple as that.
  9. Like
    Carnero reacted to TexasRam in Coronavirus part 2. Whitty’s Revenge   
    As stated loads of times, you can make stats if any narrative. People make a living from it, especially in science. A lot more people died than normal, so what happened in 2003 when the deaths per 100k of the population were higher than 2020 (1019 vs 1016). Maybe Covid had a time machine? Unfortunately the stats can get holes shot in them all day.  
  10. Like
    Carnero reacted to richinspain in Relegation watch   
    No one has suggested that we will win our last 5 games, only that it IS in our own hands. We are however as likely to win our last 5 games as any of the other teams down at the bottom to win all of theirs. It is in our hands because we only have to perform as well as Birmingham in their games not beat them at our place.
  11. Like
    Carnero reacted to RadioactiveWaste in El DerbyCo   
    Some posts on this thread seem to be going the wrong way around it regarding the academy.
    We're not poor this season because we've put in loads of academy players, we're poor this season because senior pros haven't been good enough. If we'd not had youth players of the caliber to actually put in some reasonable performances we'd be dead and buried already.
    It's taken nearly ten years to build a quality academy set up, started back in the nigel clough days, accelerated by Mel's investment and some people are trying to now say it's been a wasted endevour because of this season - and the plight this season is the least responsibility of the academy and the most on failures of expensive, experienced senior professionals (this season and previous seasons).
  12. Like
    Carnero reacted to Ghost of Clough in El DerbyCo   
    Going back to my post yesterday regarding minutes to academy graduates, this is the list of players (and season) where they got anything meaningful...
    Hanson (15/16) - Behind Hendrick, Hughes, Butterfield, Johnson, Bryson, Thorne and Baird. Got in due to injuries and even played at LB and RB.
    Lowe (16/17) - Injuries to Olsson and Forsyth gave him a chance
    Bogle (18/19) - Started the season as Wisdom's backup because we couldn't find a suitable loan. Once in the team he was too good to be dropped.
    Bennett (18/19) - A squad player who had a massive impact off the bench. A vital member of that squad.
    Bogle (19/20) - Deservedly in the squad due to 18/19
    Lowe (19/20) - Started the season as 3rd choice behind Malone and Forsyth. His first 8 games were all at RB because Bogle was injured. He impressed Cocu so much in those games he earned a starting spot over Malone when Bogle returned from injury. Pretty much remained that what until he picked up the red card, which coincided with Forsyth returning from injury - back down to 2nd choice.
    Bird (19/20) - Behind Bielik, Holmes, Dowell, Shinnie, Evans and Huddlestone as one of the two CMs. Came in to the side due to an injury crisis but deservedly retained his spot due to form once they were all fit.
    Knight (19/20) - Used as a utility player based on where we had a gap on any particular day - CM, AM, RW, LW. His performances merited staying in the team though.
    Sibley (19/20) - Head and shoulders the best player at U23 level out of all teams. Deservedly got a chance in the league and scored 5 in 11 games.
    Knight (20/21) - Deservedly in the squad due to 19/20
    Buchanan (20/21) - Felt like he was given a shot a bit too soon. However, the fact his performances merited an U21 callup, he's clearly good enough for this level.
    Bird (20/21) - Deservedly in the squad due to 19/20
    Sibley (20/21) - Deservedly in the squad due to 19/20
    So who affected recruitment?
    Bogle I guess, because we couldn't loan him out and we would have got someone cheap in as cover for Wisdom - thank duck for that.
    Knight in 19/20 at a push, but P&S restricted how much we could spend on wages and I'm guessing the budget was empty
    Buchanan in 20/21, but the fact  our transfer business was was it was in the summer (and then in January) also indicates the P&S budget was again empty.
    Once working as it should, the team grows as the academy graduates grow. Yes, some players will outgrow the team and be snatched by a bigger club. Either the next academy graduate steps up or you buy a new player in of a similar ability straight away. That specific position may be weaker, but the rest of the young team continues to improve with a net positive result.
    I bet Leicester are kicking themselves for spending all that money on their academy just to produce and England quality LB for Chelsea... Idiots
  13. Like
    Carnero reacted to TexasRam in Coronavirus part 2. Whitty’s Revenge   
    Me too! just  watch out for those pesky variants out there. The UK one has proved to be no more harmful so now guess what, the South African one is back on the radar getting scientists worried. All scaremongering BS, life’s getting back to normal unfortunately that seems to spite some people who have been given recent powers & status. 
  14. Like
    Carnero reacted to maxjam in Coronavirus part 2. Whitty’s Revenge   
    Surely the penultimate paragraph tells you what you need to know?  Regardless of lockdowns some places in the world were always going to get hit more/less severe than others due to a variety of factors.  Which is why despite Biden calling out the Texas and Florida Governors for their 'Neanderthal thinking' their infection rates are plummeting despite having fully reopened whilst other states in the US are suffering despite being in lockdown 😕 
  15. Like
    Carnero reacted to maxjam in Coronavirus part 2. Whitty’s Revenge   
    I'd like to see a proper breakdown of stats before I pass judgement tbh.   What percentage of people that died with covid had pneumonia vs those that died with heart disease or cancer etc.  But tbh, I'm tired of it all now and don't really care anymore - just looking forwards to some sunny weather and getting back to 'normal'.
  16. Like
    Carnero reacted to TexasRam in Coronavirus part 2. Whitty’s Revenge   
    Absolute twaddle, data manipulated, over stated, mass hysteria ridden and most over hype event of this generation and  generations passed. Thanks god it’s nearly done and we can get out life’s back to normal   
  17. Like
    Carnero reacted to nottingram in El DerbyCo   
    But the only manager who you could even argue has prioritised academy players over better experienced players is Cocu (and I don’t even think he did, really) by which point first team investment had been scaled back because of P&S issues that arose as a result of overspending on first team players.
    I just don’t understand the line of thinking - Mel has funded the academy from a cash perspective. He has also funded the first team from a cash perspective and a profit perspective. The academy helps to fund the first team from both a cash perspective and a profit perspective. So then the issue is that too many academy players have been promoted - please give specific examples of this happening before it became a necessity to do so because we could no longer afford to carry expensive first team players? Bennett at Wembley is literally the only one you could possibly argue and for reasons I gave originally I don’t think that’s the case.
    Bogle was, is and will continue to be much better than Wisdom so that wasn’t an issue. Knight and Bird transformed the team when becoming first team players last season, in part due to necessity because Bielik did his knee. Lowe playing instead of Malone in Cocu’s season maybe, but Malone was no world beater. Other than that, I can’t see many examples of managers picking youth players in direct place of more experienced first team players.
    The fact is, the academy has given the first team the budget to sign better players. The fact that money has been wasted is nothing to do with the academy. 
  18. Like
    Carnero reacted to Van der MoodHoover in El DerbyCo   
    People seem to be thinking that the plan was to suddenly promote the kids en mssse from the academy rather than the gradual introduction that @Ghost of Cloughquoted.
    Bringing through 1 a season for a few years should have been relatively uncontroversial as an objective. 
    Through adverse circumstances and the failure of other parts of the strategy tho, we find ourselves in the position of several relatively inexperienced players all at once.
    Interestingly tho, we still have a spine of Marshall wisdom shinnie and CKR, with possibly Lawrence just behind him. That's experienced, if a bit poo....... 
  19. Like
    Carnero got a reaction from TigerTedd in Relegation watch   
    It's totally in our own hands.
    2 teams as out of form as we are in Blackburn & Preston, Birmingham (h), Sheff Weds (h) and a trip to Swansea who's play off place will already be sealed by the time we go there.
    If we can't get 6 or 7 points out of that and we go down then it'll be because we deserved to.
  20. Haha
    Carnero got a reaction from ariotofmyown in Relegation watch   
    So I have projected the table with all 3 possible outcomes on Thursday.
    After this extensive analysis my conclusion is that we don't want Rotherham to win, we don't want Coventry to win and we don't want both teams to receive a point for a draw.
    Is Covid still a thing perhaps? 🤞
  21. Like
    Carnero got a reaction from r_wilcockson in Relegation watch   
    Well it is, 5 wins 100% keeps us up. Other teams around us play each other, and we play teams around us too.
  22. Clap
    Carnero got a reaction from BramcoteRam84 in Relegation watch   
    Well it is, 5 wins 100% keeps us up. Other teams around us play each other, and we play teams around us too.
  23. Clap
    Carnero got a reaction from Van der MoodHoover in Relegation watch   
    Well it is, 5 wins 100% keeps us up. Other teams around us play each other, and we play teams around us too.
  24. Like
    Carnero reacted to Pearl Ram in Relegation watch   
    I’d like to think I’m neither in a state of frenzy or convinced we’re doomed but writing that, I wouldn’t put my house on us staying up...or going down for that matter.
    I think I’m more what will be, will be, there’s nothing I can do about our predicament barring crossing me fingers and sending the lads my very best wishes for a drop of luck and a bit of good form. 🤷‍♂️
  25. Like
    Carnero reacted to Yani P in Relegation watch   
    Although we have the Brum Sheff games I'm sort of hoping we do the business against Blackburn and Preston to make things feel more comfortable..Blackburn are never easy but would certainly expect us to beat Preston.
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