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Statistically...we're not far away


Ellafella

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3 hours ago, brady1993 said:

@Ellafella you seem to be getting a fair amount of unwarranted stick here. You put in the effort to put together a decent post and rather than people providing logical counterarguments to what you have wrote, it's all 'Stats are meaningless, lol'.

I for one appreciate it.

You are a gentleman and a scholar, Sir. 

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5 hours ago, MuespachRam said:

So....how are those stats looking to you now......?

They still suggest the same...we now have hindsight. They suggested a close game. We had a close game. We lost 0-1 to a team in 4th place. We should have had a point. The stats still say we are not far off being a good side.  

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19 hours ago, Ellafella said:

They still suggest the same...we now have hindsight. They suggested a close game. We had a close game. We lost 0-1 to a team in 4th place. We should have had a point. The stats still say we are not far off being a good side.  

The stats say we are a hell of a lot closer to relegation than we are to 4th place....and ultimately that is all that matters. 

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On 22/10/2016 at 23:38, Ellafella said:

They still suggest the same...we now have hindsight. They suggested a close game. We had a close game. We lost 0-1 to a team in 4th place. We should have had a point. The stats still say we are not far off being a good side.  

I mostly agree with your observations based on the statistics but I'd say this conclusion is highly contestable and I believe we are further off from being a good side than you suggest.. 

My first criticism is that the stats presented are likely not taking into account the quality of chance being created. This season has seen the overwhelming majority of our chance be long range efforts or shots from difficult angles, which are naturally going to be more difficult to convert. The leads to my second criticism that fixing this issue will take quite a bit of time because it will require a serious amount of coaching to re-instill a pattern of play where we can open-up teams for genuine chances.

 

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3 hours ago, brady1993 said:

I mostly agree with your observations based on the statistics but I'd say this conclusion is highly contestable and I believe we are further off from being a good side than you suggest.. 

My first criticism is that the stats presented are likely not taking into account the quality of chance being created. This season has seen the overwhelming majority of our chance be long range efforts or shots from difficult angles, which are naturally going to be more difficult to convert. The leads to my second criticism that fixing this issue will take quite a bit of time because it will require a serious amount of coaching to re-instill a pattern of play where we can open-up teams for genuine chances.

 

Good point Brady & you've put your finger on a key issue. The number of shots is purely that and is only a weak indicator of how well controlled a team's attack is. So you have to consider the ratio of shots to goals scored to start to interpret what the data is saying. Clearly Derby currently have a high number of shots BUT a low ratio of goals to shots (ie lots of shots but few goals). Some teams (eg Burnley last year, actually had a low number of shots (compared with all other teams) BUT had a high number of goals to shots ratio ie they converted a higher proportion of their [low number of] shots indicating that their control of the ball in attacking areas was way above average. So you are quite right. FRom my own observation of Derby watching this year, we have not had the quality of possession that we have had in previous seasons; I firmly believe this is because we are missing the CDM play of Thorne (& Eustace prior to Thorne). Consequently, Hughes and Butterfield are not quite seizing control of midfield and when they do get the ball in attacking/shooting areas, the forwards are not having the quality of possession that we have had previously. The solution is quite simple...get Thorne back playing asap or put somebody else in who can be as effective there. Johnson is okay and for a while looked to be promising BUT is not as effective as Thorne. Personally I would put Farend Rawson there or get Hanson back in there, and get Hughes and Bryson in together, I believe the stats from previous seasons will show that Hughes, Bryson and Thorne (Eustace) was our most successful permutation. Once we re-gain control in the middle of the park, and get somebody to link with Vydra (for he is a No. 10, not a number 9), we will start to cook on gas again. Personally, I would give Ince an ultimatum and then stick him alongside/ just below Vydra and set him a target of 5 shots per half, per game. If he fails at that, get Weimann alongside Vydra and tell him the same...then Blackman (it gets more desperate). If none of those permutations work, get CM back from West London. :mellow:

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2 hours ago, Parsnip said:

What's everyone's beef with stats??? Obviously everyone hates MOTD pointless stats, but this is a graphical representation of certain aspects of the games and I'd imagine it can be very useful. I like it anyway.

Thank you Parsnip. If ever you hear Mel Morris speak, you will hear him talk about "key indicators", "metrics" and "performance measures". Now Mr Morris can tell you a thing or two about numbers as he spends a lot of time looking at them (especially 0's on the end of his bank statement Grand Totals). Organisational leaders of every description (in finance, insurance,) put a great deal of reliance on what statistics tell them about what is happening in the world. They are not the complete picture, but they can give you a valid insight into what the underlying trends and patterns are. Another thread on here is asking "Confidence or a complete re-build?". Well, the answer is there's just a few tweaks required for the Team to regain its efficacy and I'm confident that Mac will fix it. We may not do it in time for this year, but we can go again next year, once Mac has it sorted. :mellow:

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6 hours ago, Ellafella said:

Thank you Parsnip. If ever you hear Mel Morris speak, you will hear him talk about "key indicators", "metrics" and "performance measures". Now Mr Morris can tell you a thing or two about numbers as he spends a lot of time looking at them (especially 0's on the end of his bank statement Grand Totals). Organisational leaders of every description (in finance, insurance,) put a great deal of reliance on what statistics tell them about what is happening in the world. They are not the complete picture, but they can give you a valid insight into what the underlying trends and patterns are. Another thread on here is asking "Confidence or a complete re-build?". Well, the answer is there's just a few tweaks required for the Team to regain its efficacy and I'm confident that Mac will fix it. We may not do it in time for this year, but we can go again next year, once Mac has it sorted. :mellow:

And that is exactly why Morris has monumentally fooked this up...

KPIs the ruin of the workplace but that's another thread.

We have gone past 'a few tweaks' I'm afraid. Maybe the 'tweaks' should also happen behind the scenes.

 

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I was reading The Sun at work and it had the miles ran by each team, the players who ran the furthest, the top speeds reached and the fastest players over the season.

Now there's some useless stats. 

Why do people love running so much? There's horse racing, greyhounds and athletics that do that far better. 

The ball should be doing most the work.

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2 minutes ago, Alpha said:

I was reading The Sun at work and it had the miles ran by each team, the players who ran the furthest, the top speeds reached and the fastest players over the season.

Now there's some useless stats. 

Why do people love running so much? There's horse racing, greyhounds and athletics that do that far better. 

The ball should be doing most the work.

I'd say it's because it's the new thing in football. Football hipsters (are they what we're calling them now?)

After Spain won Euro 2008, we had a new craze regarding possession. Suddenly everybody came obsessed with possession, pass percentages and number of passes per game.

After the novelty wore off and people got bored of Pep Guardiola's team winning everything via possession play, attentions turned to Germany with the so-called 'gegenpressing'.

Klopp's charasmatic personality has got the entire media and English football falling before him, and now it's the new obsession to count KMs run per game and players who run the furthest.

Mourinho's park the bus was another one. That's out of fashion nowadays too.

There will be another craze in football soon. It's looking like 352 is back in town, and that's ripped off the Italians. So we've had huge Italian, German and Spanish influence in England.

Wonder what's next? 

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3 hours ago, Angry Ram said:

And that is exactly why Morris has monumentally fooked this up...

KPIs the ruin of the workplace but that's another thread.

We have gone past 'a few tweaks' I'm afraid. Maybe the 'tweaks' should also happen behind the scenes.

 

Come on Angry...I bet you have a few crafty spreadsheets on your hard drive...

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40 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

Come on Angry...I bet you have a few crafty spreadsheets on your hard drive...

I am battered with stats men all day long.. They hate me.. :whistle:

Still have not found one who will stick his head on the block and have the courage to back up their own work.

 

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1 hour ago, FindernRam said:

Centre Forward

Inside forwards

Wingers

Half Backs

Full Backs

Goalkeeper

Leather ball, cork studs and Dubbin---Aaaah the good old days!

 

Aaaah dubbin...  Could beat a pair of freshly dubbed boots.  Do players even get dirty boots anymore???

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2 hours ago, FindernRam said:

Centre Forward

Inside forwards

Wingers

Half Backs

Full Backs

Goalkeeper

Leather ball, cork studs and Dubbin---Aaaah the good old days!

 

And linesman who made their own minds up about throw-ins instead of looking to the ref to decide!

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On 24/10/2016 at 23:44, Ellafella said:

Good point Brady & you've put your finger on a key issue. The number of shots is purely that and is only a weak indicator of how well controlled a team's attack is. So you have to consider the ratio of shots to goals scored to start to interpret what the data is saying. Clearly Derby currently have a high number of shots BUT a low ratio of goals to shots (ie lots of shots but few goals). Some teams (eg Burnley last year, actually had a low number of shots (compared with all other teams) BUT had a high number of goals to shots ratio ie they converted a higher proportion of their [low number of] shots indicating that their control of the ball in attacking areas was way above average.

You could interpret it that way but personally in the case of Burnley it was more of a case they were clinical with the few chances they created and the chances they created were often from counter attacking an opponent who had overcommitted. As opposed to better control in attacking areas.

 

On 24/10/2016 at 23:44, Ellafella said:

So you are quite right. FRom my own observation of Derby watching this year, we have not had the quality of possession that we have had in previous seasons; I firmly believe this is because we are missing the CDM play of Thorne (& Eustace prior to Thorne). Consequently, Hughes and Butterfield are not quite seizing control of midfield and when they do get the ball in attacking/shooting areas, the forwards are not having the quality of possession that we have had previously. The solution is quite simple...get Thorne back playing asap or put somebody else in who can be as effective there. Johnson is okay and for a while looked to be promising BUT is not as effective as Thorne. Personally I would put Farend Rawson there or get Hanson back in there, and get Hughes and Bryson in together, I believe the stats from previous seasons will show that Hughes, Bryson and Thorne (Eustace) was our most successful permutation.

I agree that quality of possession has been a big problem this year and a part of that (I'll go on to what I think is the other part) is missing the defensive midfielder. The defensive midfielder (how we use one at least) is a constant 'outball' for the team, helping maintain/recycle possession and is a crucial part of playing out from the back. He also allows for a lot freedom  and fluidity in the rest of your team (in a offensive and defensive perspective) particularly the two attacking midfielders. 

Thorne is still going to be the best player there and I really doubt there is a better player in that role in the championship. For now though I'd stick with Johnson there over other options. In the last couple of games he has shown a real aptitude for the position and I think he deserves an extended run of games in the position. His sheer physicality is doing a hell of lot work to disrupt opposition and easing pressure off players around him. Personally I don't think there is a fit player in the squad better equipped for the role. (Arguably Hughes is but he really needs playing where he can hurt teams).

I think the reintroduction of a defensive midfielder has actually established us having better control of the ball in the first two thirds of the pitch (this from my observations of the games) and has lead to an uptick in performances. The problem right now is quality of possession and play in the final third. I hypothesise that the reason this is the lack of anyone resembling a link-up player in the front three and there is an observable disconnect between the front three and the rest of the team. This lack of a link-up player means we can't establish ourselves effectivley in the final third of the pitch. The majority of 'forwards' in the current squad are just looking to get on the end of the final ball or the final but one, and it's crippling our attacking play because we can establish sustained pressure on an opponent's backline.

On 24/10/2016 at 23:44, Ellafella said:

Once we re-gain control in the middle of the park, and get somebody to link with Vydra (for he is a No. 10, not a number 9), we will start to cook on gas again.

Ehh I'm not sure Vydra is a #10 at all. A #10 to me is your guy who comes short and is constantly looking to link-up with the midfield, he is generally the connection between your frontline and the midfield. But you do have a point of getting someone to link-up with him. I suspect Vydra will be very effective in a front three in the 'wide-positions' when/if we bring in a 'link-up' man as the central player. This what I think a lot of people missed about our good football under McClaren previously, we really didn't play with a #9 at all. Martin is actually much better when played as a #10 and this is pretty much where he played under Mac, just a lone #10 if that makes sense?

 

On 24/10/2016 at 23:44, Ellafella said:

Personally, I would give Ince an ultimatum and then stick him alongside/ just below Vydra and set him a target of 5 shots per half, per game. If he fails at that, get Weimann alongside Vydra and tell him the same...then Blackman (it gets more desperate). If none of those permutations work, get CM back from West London. :mellow:

I don't think any of the combinations you've mentioned will work for the reasons I've mentioned above. We are currently missing the 'connective tissue' to get our attack working in tandem with the midfield.

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