Ellafella Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Ben Mayhew, that clever statistical chap from Experimental 3-6-1 has updated his Championship scatter charts which show that Derby are not far off the best sides in the Championship. They confirm what we know all too well from watching...that we have a strong defence, that we have lots of energy in attack, but that we have been energetically wasteful up front, and the main issue is enough quality forward-play that will bring more goals. BUT...and this is the value of these charts, we can see from the compoarative measures that on the charts that matter, we are up there with the best sides. This should give us some confidence that we can put things right, and start climbing the table soon. By the way, if we look at the last chart, we can see that we are actually in a slightly better place than Huddersfield whom we play tomorrow. We concede slightly less, and only score slightly less on average. So, with a bit of belief and intrinsic confidence, we may not be far from a bit of form... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdave85 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Sort out that energetic wastefulness and we'd be good reading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i-Ram Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Funny how we take a different perspective on things. Ellafella thinks Ben Mayhew a clever statistical chap. I have him down as a bit of knob jockey who needs to throw his felt tip pens out of the window and go and find a life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FindernRam Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Well it certainly proves that are shooting is as bad as we already knew from watching. What is Phillips doing with the team. They are hopeless even in the warm up. Not sure I understand what the "expected goals" chart shows but assuming it is valid. Statistically we are way off the norm in goals and expectation. Otherwise we are pretty average. So even if we do start to score this doesn't show us as a promotion side. Newcastle Bristol and Brighton stand out. Huddersfield don't which kind of undermines this sort of analysis. Oh and before anyone leaps on me I was a statistician in my younger day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alph Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 3 hours ago, i-Ram said: Funny how we take a different perspective on things. Ellafella thinks Ben Mayhew a clever statistical chap. I have him down as a bit of knob jockey who needs to throw his felt tip pens out of the window and go and find a life. He said his formidable defence can take your ineffectual attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry Ram Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 4 hours ago, Ellafella said: Ben Mayhew, that clever statistical chap from Experimental 3-6-1 has updated his Championship scatter charts which show that Derby are not far off the best sides in the Championship. They confirm what we know all too well from watching...that we have a strong defence, that we have lots of energy in attack, but that we have been energetically wasteful up front, and the main issue is enough quality forward-play that will bring more goals. BUT...and this is the value of these charts, we can see from the compoarative measures that on the charts that matter, we are up there with the best sides. This should give us some confidence that we can put things right, and start climbing the table soon. By the way, if we look at the last chart, we can see that we are actually in a slightly better place than Huddersfield whom we play tomorrow. We concede slightly less, and only score slightly less on average. So, with a bit of belief and intrinsic confidence, we may not be far from a bit of form... Bite yer tongue Angry, bite yer tongue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellafella Posted October 21, 2016 Author Share Posted October 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, Angry Ram said: Bite yer tongue Angry, bite yer tongue.. You don't have to bit your tongue Angry...I know your views on such matters.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millenniumram Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Think those stats confirm everything we knew anyway, were hardly playing poorly, we're getting into good positions but being immensely wasteful with every opportunity we get, I've never seen such a toothless attack in my time watching Derby, it sadly nullifies our good defence. Whether it's just bad luck, poor creativity, poor decision making, poor shooting or a mixture of all of them that is the problem is the question really, but let's hope we can sort it out and fast, because that second graphs just emphasises how wasteful we are compared to the rest of the league Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry Ram Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 1 minute ago, Ellafella said: You don't have to bit your tongue Angry...I know your views on such matters.. If only we played on a spreadsheet eh... The League table shows us where we are statistically... nice dots on the one you quoted, very pretty. @i-Ramhad it nailed ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingsy1884 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Bringing back Martin would certainly solve the energetic part and most likely the wastefulness as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Shots on goal doesn't relate to chances created, that's the basic mis-conception here. Remeber under Nigel Pearson when we it was pointed out statistically how we had something like 50 shots in three matches and hadn't scored a goal... But how many of those were real chances? Against Newcastle or Villa, can't quite remember, we had Tom Ince firing in first-time on more than one occasion from about 35 yards out. That isn't a chance, that's just gifting the ball back to the opposition. We weren't 'wasteful' upfront. That suggests we missed one v ones, great headed chances, shots from inside the box etc. We created next to nothing every game under Pearson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnero Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Gotta lol @ chart #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ram1964 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 statistically i am only 6 numbers short of winning millions on the lottery. footballs about points, winning games ,scoring more than the opposing team. Our goal tally is pathetic,man city have missed as many penalties as we have scored this season (well almost). you can play around with match facts and create any scenario that suits but it doesdnt change the facts. I know what Brian Clough would have made of this ,and i am sure where he would have told the creator where to put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tombo Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 13 minutes ago, ram1964 said: statistically i am only 6 numbers short of winning millions on the lottery. footballs about points, winning games ,scoring more than the opposing team. Our goal tally is pathetic,man city have missed as many penalties as we have scored this season (well almost). you can play around with match facts and create any scenario that suits but it doesdnt change the facts. I know what Brian Clough would have made of this ,and i am sure where he would have told the creator where to put it. Brian Clough was successful decades ago, it does not do well to make comparisons between the entirely different world of football we live in now and the approach of a man who was succesful at this club half a century ago. Are you also under the delusion that every word you say is so important that it ALL needs underlining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuespachRam Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 I found another statistic that indicates we are a long way from being successful...I call it, the league table...google it and check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gritstone Ram Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Here's one 11 v 11. The team with the most desire and skill will succeed. Rip the statistics up and get a team playing to their full potential that's how to win games. Oh and score more goals than the opposition that's very important too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry Ram Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 stats not going so well on here then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ram1964 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 1 hour ago, Tombo said: Brian Clough was successful decades ago, it does not do well to make comparisons between the entirely different world of football we live in now and the approach of a man who was succesful at this club half a century ago. Are you also under the delusion that every word you say is so important that it ALL needs underlining? Oh ffs so i am not particularly computer literate coukdnt get it to stop under lining and am delusional so sorry that my post doesnt meet your exacting standards.So with referance to BC you are saying that becouse he was succesful several decades ago,if he was about now his attitudes ,views opinions would be worthless and not comparable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrivateDerby Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 I'm a statman be ba ba bada bo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derby_Dave Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 If only football was played on paper! I am sure someone else once said something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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