robglosta Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 The only bet I've had so far, should pay for a pair of PL season tickets Who do you think will be this season's springer, wouldn't put it past Forest to do better than expected myself. Caught that at 11/1, although admittedly not with a £90 stake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rev Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Caught that at 11/1, although admittedly not with a £90 stake! It was the morning after meeting Mel, may have got carried away somewhat!That, and the stain of winning the stake betting on Serbia top 10 in the Euro vision SC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ovis aries Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Had this treble a couple of weeks ago Treble (Win) 1 £ 25.00 Championship 2015/16 To be promoted Derby 9/4League One 2015/16 To be promoted Sheffield Utd 6/4League Two 2015/16 To be promoted Leyton Orient 9/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sage Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Had this treble a couple of weeks ago Treble (Win) 1 £ 25.00 Championship 2015/16 To be promoted Derby 9/4League One 2015/16 To be promoted Sheffield Utd 6/4League Two 2015/16 To be promoted Leyton Orient 9/4 6/4? No wonder you never see a bookie driving a Kia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ovis aries Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 6/4? No wonder you never see a bookie driving a Kia. Just checked the latest on Laddy's they are 8/5 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-JW- Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Stay away from Sheff United, they've been favourites to go up every year they've been down there. They'll always let you down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van der MoodHoover Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 I did once publish a book on sports betting and have done a few articles on the mathematics behind it. Bascially, there are two reasons for professionals to bet. One is to identify a "cannot lose" position and allocate your money accordingly, to maximize potential profits (traders do the same thing with, for instance, foreign currency transactions).This is called arbitrage. I did find such a position with the Championship last season that produced a guaranteed 5% profit if betting optimal amounts on all of the top 8 teams to win the league. It only lasted for a few hours before the different bookies adjusted their odds.But the other is to bet when the bookies have obviously got the odds wrong. I'd say that's the case with the Tom Ince scoring bet. However, it is easy to let your head rule your heart in this case, so do be careful.good shout - what you've observed is that the bookmakers market didn't follow the Efficient Market Hypothesis (which basically denies the possibility of arbitrage profits).Nowadays trading systems measure arbitrage opportunities literally almost in nanoseconds. Looks like the bookies have a bit of a way to go but good job in identifying that they hadn't quite got a "risk neutral" position. That is not easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 The only bet I've had so far, should pay for a pair of PL season tickets Who do you think will be this season's springer, wouldn't put it past Forest to do better than expected myself. ****. I'm fairly confident, but I'd never stick £90 on it. I'd hope you throw a dcfcfans promotion party if it comes in though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mansfield Rammie Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 I never bet on us as there'd be no point. If we do well, it would take a huge amount of money to make me feel even happier.So sometimes I put on insurance bets to cushion the pain. For instance I won £500 when we didn't go up in the playoff final. It didn't make me feel any better, but at least I won £500. I would have been delighted to lose a lot of money as the price of promotion. It was the same last season - I put an insurance bet on Bournemouth to win the league when we were clear and they were our closest challengers. Thanks to a late goal from the Wendies against Watford, that was another £500.Being a disappointed Derby fan can at least buy you a few nice things. I do this! I sometimes bet against us to try and make it not too bad if we lose. Normally do it on big games. Won £659 when Florist beat us at home last season. Although id rather Derby won, the cash was nice :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 I do this! I sometimes bet against us to try and make it not too bad if we lose. Normally do it on big games. Won £659 when Florist beat us at home last season. Although id rather Derby won, the cash was nice :-)I expect there are some on the forum who will really hate this approach and say it's somehow wrong to bet against your own team, as if it had any affect on the game or as if you wanted to win the bet. I look at it as if I'm asking the question, "how much am I prepared to pay for us not to lose against the gumps?" It really means a lot to me so had I placed your bet last season (as I'd meant to but not gotten around to) I might have said it's worth £150 to me not to be beaten at home in that game. Then in my head the money is written off. Of course it buys quite a lot if you get more back, but I'd still always be gutted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteroseram Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Sky bet are now offering Jason Shackell 5/6 to score two or more goals for Derby this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kernow Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 We're now best priced 6/1 to win the league. Boro are second with best at 8/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 A few new Sky Bet odds I've seen of interest:Derby to reach 85+ points - 8/1Johnny Russell to score over 10.5 goals - 9/1Johnny Russell to score over 15.5 goals - 20/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alph Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Anyone have Shackell to score 5 or more for 50/1Had £20 on that. Was tempted to go more but he's never scored 5 in a season in his whole career. Tom Ince on corners though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Sky Bet is pretty cool. I'e never bet on them before, but they've got some great little specials and you can request your own.I've asked them to give me odds on Boro over 83.5 points + over 14.5 clean sheets. Will place a large one if they give me odds of around 7/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheltenhamRam Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 I find they all have their niches - Paddy Power give you a free tenner in play on televised games if you bet £20, 365 match £50 bets quite frequently etc. I also think these type of proposition bets are quite beatable.Let us know what they come back with Brys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorksopRam Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Jason Shackell to score 5 or more Sky Bet Championship 15/16 goals50/1 I think that's crazy odds. He's not one known for scoring goals but there's always CBs knocking a few in each season out of nowhere. And you've gotta think, we'll be dominating teams most games, getting plenty of corners (scored from a couple in pre-season), and I think he'll be our main aerial threat from set pieces.Might not come to anything but I'll definitely be having a bit on it at 50/1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_Stand_Ram Posted August 2, 2015 Author Share Posted August 2, 2015 Jason Shackell to score 5 or more Sky Bet Championship 15/16 goals50/1 I think that's crazy odds. He's not one known for scoring goals but there's always CBs knocking a few in each season out of nowhere. And you've gotta think, we'll be dominating teams most games, getting plenty of corners (scored from a couple in pre-season), and I think he'll be our main aerial threat from set pieces.Might not come to anything but I'll definitely be having a bit on it at 50/1! I've had a tenner on it. Even at Burton he was close to getting on two corners. With his height, and Ince's set pieces, along with Clement reiterating his desire to be clinical from set pieces, I think 5 is achievable. Worth the gamble at those odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorksopRam Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 I've had a tenner on it. Even at Burton he was close to getting on two corners. With his height, and Ince's set pieces, along with Clement reiterating his desire to be clinical from set pieces, I think 5 is achievable. Worth the gamble at those odds Do I not get a thank you? Or had you already seen it? I feel like I've unearthed a gem here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alph Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Jason Shackell to score 5 or more Sky Bet Championship 15/16 goals50/1 I think that's crazy odds. He's not one known for scoring goals but there's always CBs knocking a few in each season out of nowhere. And you've gotta think, we'll be dominating teams most games, getting plenty of corners (scored from a couple in pre-season), and I think he'll be our main aerial threat from set pieces.Might not come to anything but I'll definitely be having a bit on it at 50/1! Haven't you been gone for years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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