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The only bet I've had so far, should pay for a pair of PL season tickets 

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Who do you think will be this season's springer, wouldn't put it past Forest to do better than expected myself.

 

Caught that at 11/1, although admittedly not with a £90 stake! 

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Caught that at 11/1, although admittedly not with a £90 stake! 

It was the morning after meeting Mel, may have got carried away somewhat!

That, and the stain of winning the stake betting on Serbia top 10 in the Euro vision SC!

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 Had this treble a couple of weeks ago

 

Treble (Win) 1 £ 25.00 Championship 2015/16 To be promoted Derby 9/4

League One 2015/16 To be promoted Sheffield Utd 6/4


League Two 2015/16 To be promoted Leyton Orient 9/4
 
 


 

6/4? No wonder you never see a bookie driving a Kia. 

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I did once publish a book on sports betting and have done a few articles on the mathematics behind it. Bascially, there are two reasons for professionals to bet. One is to identify a "cannot lose" position and allocate your money accordingly, to maximize potential profits (traders do the same thing with, for instance, foreign currency transactions).This is called arbitrage. I did find such a position with the Championship last season that produced a guaranteed 5% profit if betting optimal amounts on all of the top 8 teams to win the league. It only lasted for a few hours before the different bookies adjusted their odds.

But the other is to bet when the bookies have obviously got the odds wrong. I'd say that's the case with the Tom Ince scoring bet. However, it is easy to let your head rule your heart in this case, so do be careful.

good shout - what you've observed is that the bookmakers market didn't follow the Efficient Market Hypothesis (which basically denies the possibility of arbitrage profits).

Nowadays trading systems measure arbitrage opportunities literally almost in nanoseconds. Looks like the bookies have a bit of a way to go but good job in identifying that they hadn't quite got a "risk neutral" position. That is not easy.

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The only bet I've had so far, should pay for a pair of PL season tickets 

Screenshot_2015-07-20-21-46-48.thumb.png

Who do you think will be this season's springer, wouldn't put it past Forest to do better than expected myself.

 

****. 

I'm fairly confident, but I'd never stick £90 on it. I'd hope you throw a dcfcfans promotion party if it comes in though :lol:

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I never bet on us as there'd be no point. If we do well, it would take a huge amount of money to make me feel even happier.

So sometimes I put on insurance bets to cushion the pain. For instance I won £500 when we didn't go up in the playoff final. It didn't make me feel any better, but at least I won £500. I would have been delighted to lose a lot of money as the price of promotion. It was the same last season - I put an insurance bet on Bournemouth to win the league when we were clear and they were our closest challengers. Thanks to a late goal from the Wendies against Watford, that was another £500.

Being a disappointed Derby fan can at least buy you a few nice things.

 

I do this! I sometimes bet against us to try and make it not too bad if we lose. Normally do it on big games. Won £659 when Florist beat us at home last season. 

Although id rather Derby won, the cash was nice :-)

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I do this! I sometimes bet against us to try and make it not too bad if we lose. Normally do it on big games. Won £659 when Florist beat us at home last season. 

Although id rather Derby won, the cash was nice :-)

I expect there are some on the forum who will really hate this approach and say it's somehow wrong to bet against your own team, as if it had any affect on the game or as if you wanted to win the bet. I look at it as if I'm asking the question, "how much am I prepared to pay for us not to lose against the gumps?" It really means a lot to me so had I placed your bet last season (as I'd meant to but not gotten around to) I might have said it's worth £150 to me not to be beaten at home in that game. Then in my head the money is written off. Of course it buys quite a lot if you get more back, but I'd still always be gutted.

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Sky Bet is pretty cool. I'e never bet on them before, but they've got some great little specials and you can request your own.

I've asked them to give me odds on Boro over 83.5 points + over 14.5 clean sheets. Will place a large one if they give me odds of around 7/1.

 

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Jason Shackell to score 5 or more Sky Bet Championship 15/16 goals

50/1

 

I think that's crazy odds. He's not one known for scoring goals but there's always CBs knocking a few in each season out of nowhere. 

And you've gotta think, we'll be dominating teams most games, getting plenty of corners (scored from a couple in pre-season), and I think he'll be our main aerial threat from set pieces.

Might not come to anything but I'll definitely be having a bit on it at 50/1!

 

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Jason Shackell to score 5 or more Sky Bet Championship 15/16 goals

50/1

 

I think that's crazy odds. He's not one known for scoring goals but there's always CBs knocking a few in each season out of nowhere. 

And you've gotta think, we'll be dominating teams most games, getting plenty of corners (scored from a couple in pre-season), and I think he'll be our main aerial threat from set pieces.

Might not come to anything but I'll definitely be having a bit on it at 50/1!

 

I've had a tenner on it. Even at Burton he was close to getting on two corners. With his height, and Ince's set pieces, along with Clement reiterating his desire to be clinical from set pieces, I think 5 is achievable. Worth the gamble at those odds 

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I've had a tenner on it. Even at Burton he was close to getting on two corners. With his height, and Ince's set pieces, along with Clement reiterating his desire to be clinical from set pieces, I think 5 is achievable. Worth the gamble at those odds 

Do I not get a thank you? Or had you already seen it? I feel like I've unearthed a gem here! 

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Jason Shackell to score 5 or more Sky Bet Championship 15/16 goals

50/1

 

I think that's crazy odds. He's not one known for scoring goals but there's always CBs knocking a few in each season out of nowhere. 

And you've gotta think, we'll be dominating teams most games, getting plenty of corners (scored from a couple in pre-season), and I think he'll be our main aerial threat from set pieces.

Might not come to anything but I'll definitely be having a bit on it at 50/1!

 

Haven't you been gone for years? 

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