North_Stand_Ram Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 I know odds mean little at this stage but I thought I'd create a thread to overview the bookies opinions on a variety of markets. I'm using SkyBet as they have loads of markets and are the official FL sponsor Winner - DCFC are joint favourites with Boro at 6/1 (7.00)Promotion - DCFC are joint favourites with Boro at 15/8 (2.88)Relegation - DCFC are the least likely team with the bookies to be relegated at 50/1 (50.00). Boro are the second highest at 33/1 (34.00), a big gapTop on September 1st - DCFC are second favourites to be top on September 1st at 9/1 (10.00), Hull are favourites at 15/2 (8.50)To stay up - DCFC are the least likely team to be relegated with SkyBet at 1/250 (1.00)Top 6 finish - DCFC are joint favourites with Boro for a top 6 finish at 4/6 (1.67)To miss out on the play offs - DCFC are the joint least likely to miss out on the play offs at 6/5 (2.20)Top scorers - Chris Martin is the joint favourite with Benik Afobe to be top scorer at 10/1 (11.00). Darren Bent is 12/1 (13.00). Andreas Weimann is 33/1 (34.00). Tom Ince is the same. Johnny Russell is 50/1 (51.00)Highest placed Midlands team - DCFC are the favourites to be the highest placed Midlands team at 10/11 (1.91). Wolves are second favourites at 9/4 (3.25). Forest are a HUGE 9/2 (5.50)To finish above - DCFC are a measly 1/3 (1.33) to finish above the red dogs. They are 1/6 (1.17) to finish above Leeds. To lose first 3 games - 50/1 (51.00)To win first 3 games - 7/1 (8.00)DCFC to get in the top 6 but NOT get promoted - 11/10 (2.10)DCFC to score in every home match - 2/1 (3.00)Ince, Weimann, Martin and Bent to score 50+ goals - 5/2 (3.50)DCFC to be top goal scorers in the division - 5/1 (6.00)Ince to score 13+ goals - 5/1 (6.00)DCFC to score 80+ goals and keep 10+ clean sheets - 11/2 (6.50)DCFC to be top at Christmas - 11/2 (6.50)Ince, Martin and Bent all to get 10+ goals - 7/1 (8.00) - very good bet IMODCFC to get 85+ points - 8/1 (9.00) A few silly ones (I hope not) to finishDCFC to score in every game - 100/1 (101.00)DCFC to score 100+ goals - 25/1 (26.00)DCFC to be promoted and Forest to be relegated 25/1 (29.00)Martin and Bent to score 20+ goals - 33/1 (34.00)DCFC to get 100+ goals - 33/1 (34.00)DCFC to go unbeaten - 100/1 (101.00)DCFC to go unbeaten AND score in every game - 1000/1 (1001.00) So, to put it bluntly, the bookies fancy us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-JW- Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 They fancied us last year...Anyway, I've got about £150 on us to go up and have had a dabble on a couple of the specials, Ince, Martin and bent all to get 10+ and us to score 80+ and get 10+ clean sheets.I still maintain we won't go up, but if we do, happy days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 I never bet on us as there'd be no point. If we do well, it would take a huge amount of money to make me feel even happier.So sometimes I put on insurance bets to cushion the pain. For instance I won £500 when we didn't go up in the playoff final. It didn't make me feel any better, but at least I won £500. I would have been delighted to lose a lot of money as the price of promotion. It was the same last season - I put an insurance bet on Bournemouth to win the league when we were clear and they were our closest challengers. Thanks to a late goal from the Wendies against Watford, that was another £500.Being a disappointed Derby fan can at least buy you a few nice things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheltenhamRam Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Managed to get 11s on winning it a while back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheltenhamRam Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Also on Ince to get 10+ at a ludicrous 5/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DEL Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Bent/Martin/Ince to score 10+ = £500 return Martin and Bent to score 20+ goals - 33/1 = £495 return Tom Ince to score over 12.5 = £500 return Rams to reach 85+ points = £800 return Next summer spending money sorted!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 Also on Ince to get 10+ at a ludicrous 5/1That's such a ridiculous bet, even I have put money on it. Though sadly it's already at 13+ goals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 I did once publish a book on sports betting and have done a few articles on the mathematics behind it. Bascially, there are two reasons for professionals to bet. One is to identify a "cannot lose" position and allocate your money accordingly, to maximize potential profits (traders do the same thing with, for instance, foreign currency transactions).This is called arbitrage. I did find such a position with the Championship last season that produced a guaranteed 5% profit if betting optimal amounts on all of the top 8 teams to win the league. It only lasted for a few hours before the different bookies adjusted their odds.But the other is to bet when the bookies have obviously got the odds wrong. I'd say that's the case with the Tom Ince scoring bet. However, it is easy to let your head rule your heart in this case, so do be careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ambitious Posted July 19, 2015 Share Posted July 19, 2015 To finish above - DCFC are a measly 1/3 (1.33) to finish above the red dogs. DCFC to score in every home match - 2/1 (3.00)Ince, Weimann, Martin and Bent to score 50+ goals - 5/2 (3.50)DCFC to be top goal scorers in the division - 5/1 (6.00)Ince to score 13+ goals - 5/1 (6.00)DCFC to score 80+ goals and keep 10+ clean sheets - 11/2 (6.50)Ince, Martin and Bent all to get 10+ goals - 7/1 (8.00) DCFC to get 85+ points - 8/1 (9.00)These are the ones that caught my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteroseram Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheltenhamRam Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I did once publish a book on sports betting and have done a few articles on the mathematics behind it. Bascially, there are two reasons for professionals to bet. One is to identify a "cannot lose" position and allocate your money accordingly, to maximize potential profits (traders do the same thing with, for instance, foreign currency transactions).This is called arbitrage. I did find such a position with the Championship last season that produced a guaranteed 5% profit if betting optimal amounts on all of the top 8 teams to win the league. It only lasted for a few hours before the different bookies adjusted their odds. But the other is to bet when the bookies have obviously got the odds wrong. I'd say that's the case with the Tom Ince scoring bet. However, it is easy to let your head rule your heart in this case, so do be careful. There was a monster Raheem Sterling arb recently - over 9.5 goals at 4/1, under 9.5 at around evens. It only lasted briefly. Tom Ince is a ludicrous bet and this is what we tend to look for although I like the 13.5 line at lot less. As was Derby at 11. Similarly, we managed to get on Raheem at 4/1 after City made their first bid. Paddy Power do a lot of promotional stuff that we also take advantage of (boosted odds, free bets in play). In that thinking betting against us in the last third of the year proved profitable unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_Stand_Ram Posted July 20, 2015 Author Share Posted July 20, 2015 decent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McRamFan Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I bet the real winners will be the bookies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord_Ram Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I bet the real winners will be the bookies...what odds can i get on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McRamFan Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 what odds can i get on that give all the money you want, then I'll tell you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheltenhamRam Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I bet the real winners will be the bookies... Yep, people love their Rooney first goal scorer, United win 3-1 bets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simsdcfc Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 What odds can i get for us not to finish in top 10 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrivateDerby Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Bent/Martin/Ince to score 10+ = £500 return Martin and Bent to score 20+ goals - 33/1 = £495 return Tom Ince to score over 12.5 = £500 return Rams to reach 85+ points = £800 return Next summer spending money sorted!!! Think I'll have a punt on that lot, nice one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 I think the Derby and Boro to finish top half (4/9) is massively out of line too. I'd have thought that would be around 2/7 at a push, perhaps even 1/4. Given 62 points is usually enough to finish in the top half, I can't understand those odds.Derby, Boro and Wolves to finish in top six 12/1 is good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rev Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 The only bet I've had so far, should pay for a pair of PL season tickets Who do you think will be this season's springer, wouldn't put it past Forest to do better than expected myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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